MENA Strategic Bulletin – A Special Edition

What does the Israel-Hamas ceasefire entail?

After months of intense mediation by the US, Qatar and Egypt, the long-awaited ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has finally been agreed upon, with the deal announced on Wednesday. Set to begin on Sunday, January 19, pending approval by the Israeli cabinet, the ceasefire carries significant implications, particularly regarding the withdrawal of Israeli troops, the flow of humanitarian aid, the hostage exchange and the return of displaced residents within Gaza.

Hostage release and Palestinian prisoners

At the core of the ceasefire agreement lies the prisoner exchange. In the first phase of the deal, nine wounded Israeli hostages currently held in Gaza by Hamas will be released in return for 110 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences. Additionally, Israel has agreed to release 1,000 Palestinians detained after October 8, 2023, provided they were not involved in the attacks on October 7.

The agreement will start with the release of elderly Israeli prisoners, following a 1:3 exchange ratio, meaning that for every one elderly Israeli prisoner released, three Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences will be freed. A ratio of 1:27 will apply for Palestinian prisoners serving other sentences.

Other captives held by Hamas, Ebra Mangesto and Hesham el-Sayed, will be released in exchange for 30 Palestinian prisoners each, as well as 47 prisoners related to the Gilad Shalit case. This release is part of a broader effort to build goodwill and begin the process of de-escalating tensions, with further exchanges expected to follow.

Humanitarian aid and border control

In addition to the prisoner exchanges, humanitarian aid and border access are critical elements of the ceasefire. The Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt, which Israel seized during the war, will be opened to allow for the transfer of wounded Palestinian civilians once all female captives are released. Following this, 50 wounded Palestinian combatants will be allowed to cross daily into Egypt for medical treatment, with the approval of both Israeli and Egyptian authorities. This will also lead to the entering of aid trucks through the border. Humanitarian aid will be managed according to an established protocol that will be overseen by international mediators.

The Philadelphi corridor, a key border area between Gaza and Egypt, which Israel controlledof, will see a gradual decrease in the presence of Israeli forces. This process will begin after phase one and is set to be completed by day 50.

However, concerns have been raised in the Israeli cabinet on this point due to the corridor’s strategic location, with some claiming that any withdrawal of Israeli troops will lead to a weapons-smuggling lifeline for Hamas. Any such eventuality would complicate the agreement going forward, as it is important for the corridor to be open for the flow of aid to Gaza.

Palestinian displacement and withdrawal of Israeli troops

The agreement also sets out a programme of phased return for internally displaced Palestinians. Starting on day seven, unarmed displaced civilians will be allowed to return to northern Gaza, where humanitarian aid has been severely restricted since October 2024. A second wave of returns is also scheduled for day 22. Cars and vehicles will also be allowed to return though an inspection process run by a private company approved by Israel, and in coordination with international mediators.

The withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza’s border areas is another key element of the ceasefire. Israeli forces will begin a gradual pullback from densely populated areas like Wadi Gaza and the Netzarim Axis. Forces will retreat to a perimeter of 700 metres, with certain exceptions, based on the maps agreed upon by both sides. This phased withdrawal is due to conclude by day 50 of the agreement.

The goal of this phased pullback is to allow for Israel’s full disengagement from Gaza while also preventing Hamas from re-establishing control. This will be achieved by Israel maintaining  some kind of presence over the borders, making it more difficult for Hamas to sustain its military operations and cutting off potential smuggling routes for weapons and supplies. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the objective is to “allow Israel to fully withdraw from Gaza, prevent Hamas from filling back in, and provide for Gaza’s governance”. However, the broader question of replacing the political role of Hamas in governing Gaza remains unresolved.

What’s next?

Despite Prime Minister Netanyahu’s claims of Hamas backtracking on parts of the deal, Hamas has reaffirmed its commitment to the ceasefire. Meanwhile, the United States remains cautiously optimistic that the ceasefire and hostage release deal will go ahead as scheduled on Sunday, January 19, acknowledging that “loose ends” are to be expected in such a complex negotiation.

While the Israeli cabinet is set to approve the ceasefire deal on Friday, it will face opposition, including from hardline figures like Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has publicly rejected the deal and threatened to resign if it is approved. This internal dissent raises questions about the deal’s viability and the continuity of the ceasefire.

Many of the most important issues for Gaza’s future – including issues of long-term governance – will be determined in phases two and three of the agreement. These phases will address the broader political settlement, which remains uncertain, leaving the path forward unclear.

Israel’s core objective in Gaza – the dismantling of Hamas – remains unrealised, with US intelligence suggesting that Hamas has not only survived but has been able to recruit more fighters since the escalation on October 7. This factor, along with Israeli hawkishness, increases the likelihood that the ceasefire proves to be temporary, overly reliant on hostage exchanges rather than meaningful conciliations.

The deal’s success will depend on immense diplomatic oversight and continued international pressure to ensure its survival. In the longer term, ensuring a sustainable peace will require addressing the root causes of the conflict, and in the medium term, careful consideration of the political and security realities of post-war Gaza.