Crucial Next Steps in Syria’s Transition

The bottom line

• The Syrian opposition has successfully removed Bashar Al Assad from power. However, the country’s transition faces significant challenges due to fragile unity among the rebel factions. Maintaining internal cohesion is essential for avoiding territorial fragmentation and ensuring a peaceful rebuilding process.
• HTS leader Ahmad Al Sharaa has pledged to create an inclusive Syria for all ethnic and religious groups, but this vision can only succeed through substantial reforms, meaningful integration, and cooperation across Syria’s diverse communities.
• Gaining international support is crucial for Syria’s recovery, as HTS seeks to distance itself from extremist affiliations and engage with global powers. The international community must reassess sanctions, re-establish diplomatic relations, and provide both financial and technical assistance to support Syria’s reconstruction efforts.

Syrian opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) announced on 8 December the liberation of the country from the rule of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This marked the end of the Al Assad family’s 54-year rule and, after a 13-year civil war, has opened a new chapter in Syria’s history.

The primary goal of the Syrian rebels was to overthrow the Assad regime. However, achieving this objective represents only the first step in Syria’s transition. Unity amongst the rebel groups remains fragile, and unless common interests continue to bind Syria’s multiple armed groups together, then there remains a risk of territorial fragmentation. Maintaining internal cohesion, therefore, is essential to ensuring a peaceful transition and the sustainable rebuilding of the country. As such, HTS and the country’s other armed factions must continue to collaborate and work together for the good of Syria, despite their sharp religious, social and ideological differences.

HTS leader de-facto leader of the country Ahmad Al Sharaa (formerly known as Mohammed Abu Al Jolani) has pledged to create a ‘homeland for all Syrians, including all sects and social classes’,  but it is unclear quite how the country’s many groups will coexist after passing through such a brutal, punishing and divisive war.

After all, Syria is home to a diverse array of ethnic and religious groups: Sunni Muslims form the overwhelming majority; Druze communities are concentrated in Suweida; Kurdish communities are predominantly located in the northeast; Alawis along the coastline, Ismailis in Homs, and Turkmens, Christians, and others spread across the country.  While Sharaa’s pledge offers hope to Syrians, it will soon risk becoming an empty promise unless the transitional government acts and introduces meaningful reforms.

The Syrian government can focus on at least four key areas to ensure that unity is maintained, and these include: creating a unified military command and reforming the Syrian Arab Army (SAA); retaining and reviving the bureaucracy; engaging with Syria’s active civil society; and securing widespread support from the international community.

Unifying the military command

Establishing a joint military command would help coordinate security operations, build trust, and strengthen accountability among Syrian armed factions. Sharaa has taken steps to repurpose the defence ministry to that end. On 21 December, he appointed Murhaf Abu Qasra (also known by the nom de guerre Abu Hassan 600) as defence minister and gave him the task of bringing together Syria’s armed factions under the ministry.  However, the real challenge will be persuading those armed groups that have fought for territory over the past 13 years to disarm, disband and join the SAA.  It will be a major political undertaking.

Another challenge will be avoiding the mistakes made by the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) when it dissolved Iraq’s 400,000-strong armed forces and excluded Baathists from employment in post-Saddam Iraq. Whilst initially popular, the move sparked an insurgency and meant that CPA and subsequent Iraqi governments struggled to assert their authority, and the country was wrought with instability.

Abu Qasra, therefore, would be well-advised to reform rather than disband the SAA  and, where possible, incorporate ‘approved’ former commanders and servicemen, but also making sure that membership of the armed forces is voluntary.

By incorporating the reformed Syrian army under a unified chain of command, the interim government, and its successor, can leverage its strategic and tactical experience to support reconstruction effort and ensure Syria’s long-term security and stability.

Retaining and reviving the bureaucracy

Syria’s interim Prime Minister, Mohammad Al Bashir, has so far taken several pragmatic steps, appearing to learn from mistakes made in other geographies, such as Iraq and Libya. These include retaining key state institutions and keeping in place important civil service leaders.

As such, the transitional government has chosen not to emulate the US Coalition government’s approach to regime change in Iraq and sought to capitalise upon existing human capital. In fact, all civil servants in the central administration continue to serve in their positions, whilst the government has pledged to expand the bureaucracy to meet the challenge of reconstructing the country.

In a bid to restore business confidence, Sharaa has kept in place Central Bank governor Issam Hazima and his deputy, Maysaa Sabreen, both of whom were first appointed in 2021. Head of Damascus Chambers of Commerce Bassel Hamawi emphasised the point of continuity when he said “There is no infringement on the Central Bank, and the money in the Central Bank has been handed over to the new government.”

Engaging civil society

A fundamental step toward building a more equitable and cohesive society, while strengthening national unity, is for Syrian leadership to encourage the participation of civil society – particularly youth and women – in the reconstruction process and decision-making. Syrian civil society groups, especially those in non-regime-held areas since 2011, have gained invaluable experience. Organisations such as Baytna, Shafak, and the Syrian Networks League have played a significant role in empowering youth, building capacity, providing education, and delivering humanitarian aid, extending their support even to Syrians abroad.

These organisations, along with similar entities, have provided essential education and training programmes, reconstruction initiatives, healthcare services, and risk assessments, which remain crucial in the aftermath of the conflict. Therefore, Syrian leaders need to involve victims in the negotiation, planning, and implementation of reparative measures to build trust between the state and society.

Syrians returning from abroad, equipped with expertise and skills, can also play a key role in establishing civil organisations and supporting Syria’s economic, social, and political recovery.

Gaining international support

The international community can play a critical role in helping Syria recover from the devastating effects of war and start its journey toward reconstruction. However, it will need to overcome several political obstacles first. For example, the US and other countries classify HTS as a terrorist organisation. Al Sharaa has taken significant steps to distance HTS from Al Qaeda. These measures include publicly severing ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 and rebranding his group to project a more moderate image.

Since becoming Syria’s de facto leader, Al Sharaa has engaged with several international figures. Notably, he met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and US Under Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf. During these meetings, Al Sharaa emphasised his commitment to a political transition and counterterrorism efforts.

In addition to these diplomatic engagements, Al Sharaa has received other world leaders, including Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Al Safadi, who expressed Jordan’s willingness to assist in Syria’s reconstruction. Turkey, France, and Qatar have reopened their embassies in Syria, signalling a shift toward diplomatic normalisation. Although HTS remains a proscribed group for many Western governments, the US lifted the $10m bounty on Al Sharaa on December 20 2024, following positive diplomatic engagements.

These rapid developments suggest that the group may soon be removed from the US, EU, Turkey and the UAE lists of organisations that support terrorism and, by doing so, it will mean that international support can be forthcoming, and recovery will move at pace.

Now is the time for the international community to unite, reassess sanctions, reopen diplomatic channels, and reintegrate Syria into the global community. The international community should also be prepared to provide financial aid and support the country’s reconstruction and infrastructure rebuilding efforts. However, Syrians should be left to lead their own transition, and international partners should be ready to support them.

Image source: CC by 4.0.