1 To Watch
Crucial Next Steps in Syria’s Transition
The transitional government must focus on four key areas to ensure that unity is maintained.
December 24, 2024
Saudi policies extend beyond airstrikes to fuel Yemen’s spiral into economic decline.
3 To Watch keeps subscribers up to speed on key developments in MENA through weekly written analysis/direct contact with our team. Contact us for more info.
Note: This edition of 3 To watch was distributed in full on November 23.
Yemen’s economy is expected to contract by 2% in 2021, following a decline of 8.5% in 2020. It is holding on by a thread thanks to international aid packages, but these are akin to putting a sticking plaster on a gaping wound: unemployment is around 55%, and the country is grappling with burgeoning inflation; escalating food and commodity prices; a depreciating riyal and depleting foreign exchange reserves; and dwindling income from slashed exports.
Set against this, the US’s recent pledges of long-term economic assistance are like sprinklers on a forest fire. Yemen needs a stable government before any economic improvement can be achieved. But the likelihood of this is becoming more remote as the Houthis solidify their position, the international community’s diplomatic efforts falter and Saudi retreats with no Plan B but to bolster its defences.
The kingdom has faced criticism for imposing an oil and aid blockade, and for actively reducing the number of Yemenis working inside its borders. The latter is being attributed, in part, to the need to provide jobs for Saudi citizens amid high unemployment rates. However, terminating contracts or limiting the number of Yemenis employed by companies will have an even more detrimental impact on livelihoods back in Yemen; approximately one in 10 relies on income from remittances for basic needs.
Supporting the country’s currency and boosting its foreign reserves while oil and gas exports remain constrained are in Saudi Arabia’s interests as well; Vision 2030 will require billions in investment; aiding Yemen’s economic recovery while containing the risk of Houthi attacks will do much to reassure investors.
1 To Watch
The transitional government must focus on four key areas to ensure that unity is maintained.
December 24, 2024
1 To Watch
The UN must overhaul its command structure and implement reforms that prioritise diplomacy over military intervention.
December 9, 2024
1 To Watch
How might the US fare fighting on two fronts against two enemies? The election of Donald Trump increases the likelihood of direct conflict with China and Iran.
November 25, 2024
© Azure Strategy 2025.