MENA Strategic Bulletin

Providing analysis and strategic insights on key developments this week.

October 28, 2024 - 4 minute read

Geopolitics

Israel launches retaliatory strike against Iran

Israel has launched a series of “precise” airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to ballistic missile strikes from Tehran on October 1. The strikes, more limited than was initially feared, are being viewed as another escalation in the conflict – but not a major one. Early assessments suggest Israeli forces hit approximately 20 targets, including missile manufacturing facilities and military installations, with some areas sustaining only minor damage. Iranian military has reported that four of its soldiers were killed.

Stakeholder and regional impact

Israel executed a calculated and targeted strike that aligned closely with US expectations, effectively retaliating against Tehran for its attacks without provoking a major escalation. It follows intense diplomacy by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a recent of the region, when he emphasised the importance of Israel avoiding attacking any Iranian oil or nuclear facilities.

Iran has responded by asserting its right to defend itself. Tehran’s officials emphasised that the attack represents a violation of international law. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for a measured demonstration of power in response. Regional powers have also voiced their concerns. Saudi Arabia condemned the strikes, warning against any actions that “threatens the security and stability of the region.” Similarly, Egypt’s foreign ministry expressed grave concerns about the escalation. Both the US and UK have urged Iran to show restraint in any response to Israel, emphasising the need to avoid further escalation and maintain regional stability.

What’s next?

As the situation develops, the focus shifts to Iran’s potential response to Israel’s strikes.

Iranian officials have indicated that they are evaluating how best to demonstrate their power without escalating the conflict. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that the Israeli attack should “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated.” This suggests Tehran is giving careful consideration to its next steps, given that it has both domestic and regional pressures to navigate.

Intense diplomatic efforts are underway, particularly from the US, to mitigate further escalation while restoring a balance of deterrence in the region. Iran is unlikely to undertake any major action before the US presidential elections, as maintaining stability may be politically advantageous.

 

Israel targets Gaza and Lebanon as ceasefire talks resume

Israel has intensified its military actions in both Gaza and Lebanon amid the resumption of ceasefire talks in Qatar at the weekend. Israeli operations in Gaza have expanded from North Gaza’s Jabalia Camp into Khan Younis. Speaking from northern Gaza on October 23, IDF Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi said that there was potential for Israel to decisively conclude the conflict with Hezbollah, asserting that the group’s senior leadership has been significantly weakened.

Meanwhile, the fallout from attacks on UN peacekeepers in Lebanon continues, with a recently released Financial Times report documenting at least a dozen attacks on UN sites, including the use of white phosphorus munitions. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in London on October 25 to discuss the situation.

Regional and stakeholder impact

The Prime Ministers of both Lebanon and Jordan have expressed grave concerns about the humanitarian crisis in northern Gaza, where the situation has deteriorated significantly, with aid unable to enter for the past 18 days. Prime Minister Mikati described the conditions in Gaza as ethnic cleansing and urged an end to the violence.

The ongoing violence and blockades have also heightened tensions within Lebanon, complicating Mikati’s efforts to navigate a response that balances internal pressures with international diplomacy. Mikati has emphasised the need to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israel from Lebanon, and Hezbollah from north of the Litani River.

The recent attacks on UNIFL bases in Lebanon raise significant concerns about the safety of international personnel and the efficacy of peacekeeping operations in the region. If the situation escalates further, it could hinder future humanitarian efforts and destabilise an already fragile environment.

Amid these developments, over 130 Israeli reservists have signed an open letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, refusing to engage in combat unless a hostage and ceasefire agreement is established, adding to domestic pressure to accept a deal.

What’s next?

As discussions around a hostage and ceasefire deal resume in Doha, expectations for a breakthrough remain low, particularly with the upcoming US presidential election adding uncertainty to the long-term diplomatic picture.

Blinken’s recent meetings with Arab leaders are part of a concerted effort to de-escalate tensions and reach a diplomatic solution while President Biden remains in office, with Lebanon the primary focus. The emphasis will be on reinforcing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and addressing the humanitarian needs of those affected by the violence.

 

Turkey conducts retaliatory airstrikes in Syria and Iraq following Ankara attack

On October 23, Turkey executed a series of airstrikes targeting sites linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northern Syria and Iraq. The military response was described as retaliation for an alleged PKK attack on Turkish Aerospace Industries facilities in Ankara, which resulted in five fatalities. The Turkish Defence Ministry reported that 47 targets were struck, including 29 in northern Iraq and 18 in Syria. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya confirmed both assailants involved in the Ankara attack were identified as PKK members.

The PKK, while claiming responsibility for the attack, stated that it had been planned long ago and was not related to recent talks about the potential for a new peace process.

Regional and stakeholder impact

The escalation of violence has significant implications for various stakeholders. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reported that the airstrikes resulted in civilian casualties, including 12 deaths and 25 injuries, sparking condemnation and allegations of war crimes. SDF leaders condemned the attacks on vital infrastructure, which included power stations and water facilities.

Additionally, the PKK and its affiliates find themselves at a pivotal moment. While the group, and the imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan, have indicated a willingness to engage in dialogue with the Turkish state, recent military actions will complicate any efforts for peace. There is potential to revive peace talks, but this would be contingent on Ocalan dissolving the PKK. The internal dynamics within Turkey, particularly the growing influence of nationalist factions, could also impact potential negotiations.

International stakeholders, including NATO and the US, face challenges in balancing their anti-terrorism mandates with the need for humanitarian protection, particularly given the civilian toll of Turkish operations.

What’s next?

In the wake of the Ankara attack and subsequent airstrikes, the future of Turkish-Kurdish relations remains uncertain.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears determined to maintain a hardline stance against perceived threats while also navigating complex political pressures domestically. The violence of the latest retaliatory airstrikes raises concerns that hawkish elements within both the Turkish government and the PKK could derail potential peace efforts.

The potential for meaningful dialogue hinges on a shift away from military aggression and towards diplomatic engagement.

Kanz Majdalawi