MENA Strategic Bulletin

The temporary freezing of financial aid is a policy shift with potential to reshape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape.

January 31, 2025 - 4 minute read

Donald Trump freezes US aid

How Trump’s global aid pause will affect the Middle East

In a controversial and far-reaching move, on Monday, January 27, President Donald Trump enacted an executive order to freeze almost all US foreign assistance worldwide for 90 days.

The sweeping action halts programmes providing humanitarian aid, health services, food distribution and military support in every US donor country worldwide, except Egypt and Israel. Though currently temporary, the freezing of financial aid is a policy shift with potential to reshape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape.

Regional and stakeholder impact

In Gaza, the disruption of aid has already compromised the delivery of vital supplies. The 600 aid trucks meant to enter daily as part of the ceasefire agreement are now at risk of being halted. This could exacerbate an already dire humanitarian crisis.

In the West Bank, the situation is similarly precarious. With UNRWA unable to operate under Israeli restrictions and funding from the US drying up, economic conditions are worsening and political tensions are rising. The growing influence of armed groups in cities like Jenin makes the need for US assistance more urgent than ever. Without support, the risk of increased extremism and unrest grows, making any path to peace more difficult.

Jordan, a key US ally and a critical buffer zone in the region, receives over $1bn annually in military and economic aid, which is vital for both national defence and refugee support. With the freeze in place, Jordan faces growing instability, especially as it hosts large numbers of refugees from Syria and Iraq. A destabilised Jordan could have serious repercussions for regional security and for US interests in the Middle East.

As for Lebanon, the freeze on US aid directly threatens the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel. The agreement depends on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) taking control in the south and disarming Hezbollah. Without US military and financial support, the LAF will struggle to maintain control and enforce the ceasefire, putting Lebanon’s security at risk. With Israeli forces still in place and tensions high, the aid freeze could destabilise a fragile situation.

Syria, beginning to rebuild after years of conflict, is highly dependent on US aid to address its humanitarian crisis and support economic recovery. The aid freeze signals US disengagement, potentially pushing Syria closer to Russia and other camps of influence. This shift will weaken US influence in the country and risks undermining years of effort to stabilise the region. As Syria seeks alternative support, the consequences for regional geopolitics could be significant.

What’s next?

The US will undergo reviews of its humanitarian aid programmes during the 90-day halt, which will cause major disruptions in aid delivery, ceasefire implementations and state-building efforts in Lebanon and Syria.

While these reviews are expected to lead to a reduction in foreign aid, it is unlikely to completely halt, given its critical role in maintaining US security and strategic interests in the region. The outcomes of these reviews will have a sizable bearing on humanitarian situations across the region, with major cuts likely to contribute to political instability.

Syria’s Sharaa declared president for transition

Ahmed Al Sharaa has been appointed president of Syria for a transitional phase, with the country’s constitution effectively suspended, as reported by the Syrian state news agency.

In this role, Sharaa has been granted the authority to establish a temporary legislative council that will govern the country until a new constitution is put in place. This development follows Sharaa’s leadership in the military campaign that ousted Bashar Al Assad, solidifying his control over Syria. Sharaa has outlined plans for a political transition, including the formation of an inclusive government, but has extended the timeline for elections from two years to four years.

Regional and stakeholder impact

As Syria rebuilds under Ahmed Al Sharaa’s leadership, a series of challenges and opportunities will shape the country’s future, particularly regarding the creation of a unified national army and security forces.

Sharaa has called for the integration of former opposition rebel groups into a cohesive military and security structure, but questions remain regarding how the interim administration will unite these factions, each with its own distinct leaders, ideologies and allegiances. The challenge of consolidating these diverse forces into a single, functioning entity could either strengthen or further fracture the country, depending on Sharaa’s ability to reconcile competing interests.

Regional leaders have responded positively to Sharaa’s ascension, with Saudi Arabia welcoming the announcement and the Qatari Emir making a historic visit to Syria as the first Arab leader since Assad’s fall. Moscow also plans to reopen its embassy in Damascus, signalling further shifts in Syria’s international relations. Meanwhile, EU foreign ministers have agreed in principle on a roadmap to begin easing sanctions, one of the key factors Syria’s economic future.

Additionally, Sharaa plans to announce the formation of a committee to prepare for a national dialogue conference, which will serve as a platform for Syrians to discuss the future political framework of the country. This process is expected to culminate in a new “constitutional declaration”, marking the beginning of a comprehensive constitutional drafting process.

To address the vacuum left by the dissolution of the Syrian parliament, Sharaa has pledged to form a temporary legislative body. This council will hold power until new elections can be held.

What’s next?

The success of these initiatives will largely depend on Sharaa’s ability to balance the demands of various stakeholders, both domestic and international, and whether he can deliver on promises of an inclusive, unified government.

Another critical factor for the country’s security and economic prospects will be how Sharaa navigates and balances his relationships with key international players, including Russia, the US and the EU. The US foreign aid freeze, which has already disrupted crucial humanitarian assistance, is a blow to Syria’s economic recovery, but Sharaa will hope his pragmatic approach to international diplomacy pays dividends over the longer term.

Third prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas

On Thursday, the third stage of the hostages-for-prisoners swap took place, with three Israeli hostages released.

Large crowds gathered to witness the handover in front of the house of the deceased Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Khan Younis in southern Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticised the scenes, which he saw as compromising the safety of the hostages, and led him to delay the release of 110 Palestinians scheduled for the same day.

Meanwhile, Israel’s military operations in the West Bank entered their ninth consecutive day, with raids intensifying in the cities of Jenin and Tul Karem, resulting in increased casualties.

Stakeholder and regional impact

While Netanyahu demanded that mediators “make sure that such threats will not happen again,” and “guarantee the safety of our abductees” , Hamas framed the large crowds in Gaza as a powerful message of resistance, issuing a statement that called the gathering a “message of determination and defiance,” signaling their resolve to continue the struggle for Palestinian liberation, return and self-determination.

Meanwhile, the violence in the West Bank continues to escalate, threatening the continuity of the fragile ceasefire.

The escalation comes in the context of President Donald Trump’s recent decision to lift sanctions on ultranationalist Israeli settlers, many of whom have been involved in violence against Palestinian villages. While each successful hostage exchange keeps the ceasefire alive in Gaza, escalating violence in the West Bank risks undermining any hope of a broader peace between the two parties.

What’s next?

The fourth stage of the prisoner swap is scheduled for Saturday, with Israel receiving the names of the hostages to be released by Hamas.

In the longer term, Israel’s ongoing military actions in the West Bank raise doubts about its commitment to a two-state solution. President Trump’s actions and rhetoric on the conflict give backing to settler and far-right elements of Israeli government, who actively opposed the ceasefire. Continued escalation in this direction risks damaging the prospects of the ceasefire and future hostage exchanges.

Kanz Majdalawi

Kanz Majdalawi