MENA Strategic Bulletin

Gaza hostages deal tops agenda for Netanyahu US visit

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to visit Washington next week for crucial meetings with President Donald Trump and senior US officials, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth.

The visit follows the recent success of Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” and marks the third meeting between Netanyahu and Trump since the latter’s second presidency began. While both leaders have been expressing optimism about securing a ceasefire in Gaza, the situation remains complex.

Trump has indicated that a new 60-day ceasefire could be imminent, stating on Tuesday that both he and Netanyahu are eager to bring an end to the nearly 21-month-long conflict. He voiced hope that a ceasefire could occur by next week, stressing the return of hostages as a key objective.

However, fundamental differences between the aims of Israel and Hamas will have to be resolved before an agreement is reached. Netanyahu signalled a willingness for a temporary pause in hostilities if the hostages can be returned, while Hamas continues to demand a permanent cessation of the war. For Israel, however, any long-term agreement is off the table unless Hamas is disarmed and its rule dismantled, conditions it sees as non-negotiable for Israeli security.

In the lead-up to Netanyahu’s Washington trip, his advisor, Ron Dermer, has been laying the groundwork, discussing postwar governance and ceasefire terms with US figures like Marco Rubio and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The failure of previous ceasefire negotiations in March, following Hamas’ rejection of US and Israeli proposals, has added complexity to this diplomatic effort.

Stakeholder and regional impact

The ceasefire talks represent a critical juncture not only for Israel’s national security but also for Netanyahu’s political future. Securing the return of the remaining hostages would be a major boost to his domestic credibility, especially as his Gaza policy has sparked widespread protests and even emigration.

While the recent 12-day conflict with Iran helped solidify support among the hawkish, right-wing factions of his coalition, Netanyahu’s overall approval among the broader public remains low. But with mounting pressure from the US, he may be compelled to adopt a more conciliatory stance, potentially accelerating negotiations to secure the release of the final 50 hostages.

Recent polling indicates that 67% of Israelis want the Gaza war to end, largely to ensure the hostages’ return, further pressuring Netanyahu. His right-wing coalition may see the ceasefire as a necessary step to secure Israel’s future stability, but his political survival could depend on his ability to balance international pressure with domestic demands. The US is likely to leverage Qatar’s influence with Hamas, warning of possible expulsion if the militant group fails to show flexibility in negotiations.

The regional implications are also significant. Netanyahu has hinted at “broad regional possibilities” following the conclusion of Israel’s 12-day conflict with Iran. Notably, discussions are expected to touch on the Abraham Accords and the potential for Israel to normalise relations with Lebanon and Syria. While Israel seeks to expand the scope of these agreements, US officials are reportedly exploring preliminary talks with Syria, though sensitive issues like the Golan Heights remain off the table.

Furthermore, the US has strengthened its defence relationship with Israel thanks to a planned $510m sale of Joint Direct Attack Munition kits to the Israeli Air Force. This support enhances Netanyahu’s position domestically and internationally, especially amid continued instability in the region.

What’s next?

In the coming days, US and Israeli officials are expected to intensify discussions, particularly concerning a potential ceasefire and the broader regional dynamics. Netanyahu’s envoy, Ron Dermer, has already arrived in Washington to engage with US officials and strategize next steps.

Negotiations are likely to continue evolving, with a primary focus on securing the hostages’ release and exploring new diplomatic avenues with Israel’s Arab neighbours. However, a lot still depends on Hamas and its willingness to surrender the remaining hostages without a concrete guarantee of a lasting truce.

As the pressure from both domestic and international fronts mounts, the direction of these talks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the Gaza conflict and broader Middle East stability.

Trump lifts Syria sanctions

In continuing evidence of a major shift in US policy toward Syria, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday to effectively lift many of the previously imposed US sanctions on the country. The newly signed executive order marks a departure from past US administrations’ harsh stance and is seen as a “blanket opportunity” to kickstart Syria’s economy, according to US special envoy for Syria, Thomas Barrack. However, Barrack made it clear that the US is not in the business of “nation-building” but rather offering Syria a chance to rebuild its economy on its own terms.

The order will remove the 2004 national emergency declaration on Syria, revoke five other sanctions orders, and allow for much-needed long-term investments in Syria’s reconstruction.

Notably, sanctions targeting former President Bashar Al Assad and his close associates, as well as those linked to terrorism or human rights abuses, remain in place. However, the future of Syria’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism remains under review, with some officials suggesting it may be reevaluated in the coming months.

Stakeholder and regional impact

While the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act remains intact, the Trump administration has offered a temporary six-month waiver on the Caesar Act. The new executive order instructs US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to review these sanctions and consider suspending them if certain conditions are met.

Originally implemented to target the Assad regime, the Caesar Sanctions also target Syrian-operated industries such as infrastructure, military maintenance and energy production, which will be key to Syria’s recovery.

The government’s new geopolitical orientation is a key driver of the US decision to lift sanctions. As well as a shared alliance with Saudi Arabia and the new government’s openness to normalisation with Israel, the US is rewarding Syria’s shared interest in confronting common enemies such as ISIS and Iranian-backed militias.

The extent of help proffered by Gulf states to the Syrian economy will be crucial. Just last week, Syria announced a 200% increase in public sector wages and pensions, largely funded by Qatar’s $29m monthly grant help. The move is aimed at kickstarting the economy through household income, with the UN reporting that 90% of Syrians lived in poverty during the Syrian civil war.

Questions have been raised around the wisdom of the initiative’s reliance on Qatar’s  financial assistance. The budget only covers a fraction of the costs associated with the public sector wage hike and overall reconstruction efforts. Saudi Arabia has pledged that it will assist Qatar and pledged joint financial aid, which will likely be critical in sustaining those policies and public sector wage increase.

What’s next?

As the US begins to relax sanctions and Syria moves toward a more open economy, questions about the country’s fiscal sustainability and the effectiveness of international aid persist. The public sector wage hike, while popular, carries significant financial risks, especially considering Syria’s ongoing lack of an approved national budget. The country’s reliance on foreign aid to finance such decisions remains high, and questions about the transparency of fiscal spending continue to plague the recovery process.

Looking ahead, the review of Syria’s status as a state sponsor of terrorism will be a critical factor in determining future US engagement. The Trump administration’s broader shift toward economic normalisation with Syria will likely face challenges, especially from bipartisan opposition in Congress, which remains wary of lifting sanctions without concrete political reforms.

As the situation develops, US and international efforts to stabilise Syria’s economy and support its recovery will need to balance the complexities of geopolitical interests, domestic governance issues and