MENA Strategic Bulletin – Special Edition

Trump’s short Gulf visit may have far-reaching effects

As US President Donald Trump wraps up his four-day visit to the Middle East, taking in Riyadh, Doha and the Abu Dhabi, its series of announcements and deals are sending shockwaves through the region.

For the US, Trump firmed up his transactional relationships with some of his most important allies, namely Gulf states Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. The Gulf states, meanwhile, strengthened their position in the region and secured the defence deal from the US that they were hoping for.

Saudi Arabia pledged $600bn in US investments, including a $142bn arms package, the largest defence deal in US history. The UAE announced a $1.4trn, ten-year investment framework, while Qatar signed a $1.2trn economic agreement, headlined by an order of 210 jets from Boeing, the largest aircraft deal in the company’s history.

Elsewhere, Trump announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria, hosted high-level trilateral talks with Ukraine in Abu Dhabi and pledged to address Gaza’s humanitarian crisis in Doha, saying, “[W]e’re going to get that taken care of.”

Stakeholder and regional impact

Syria
Trump called the decision to lift sanctions on Syria “a generational opportunity”, and it certainly could have seismic effects on the country’s economy. While the path to full sanctions removal is long and legally complex, possibly taking years to implement, the move opens the door to major foreign investment in Syria, with potential to revitalise its private sector and have far-reaching consequences for its energy infrastructure.

Syria’s gas and electricity grids have already been the subject of major foreign interest. Last week, Turkey and Syria announced a deal to transport 6m cubic metres of gas per day from Kilis to Aleppo. Major international energy players Total, Shell and Suncor, may look to re-enter a market they exited over a decade ago at the outbreak of the Syrian civil war. The French construction materials conglomerate Lafarge, despite previous legal issues tied to financing ISIS operations, has reportedly also reported interest in returning.

Crucially for the US, the sanctions rollback is designed to close the door on Iranian attempts to establish influence in Sharaa’s Syria.

The Trump administration has made it clear that lifting of sanctions come with specific expectations of Syria, including ISIS containment, the demilitarisation of different factions, domestic stability and eventual alignment with the Abraham Accords, though Trump acknowledged that normalisation with Israel is not an immediate priority.

Israel
Trump’s MENA itinerary notably excluded Israel, amplifying the sense of a growing divergence between Washington and Tel Aviv. The two allies appear increasingly out-of-step on Iran, with the president doubling down on his plans for nuclear negotiations with the Islamic Republic in Qatar, saying “[w]e want this to end peacefully, not horribly.” This followed Trump’s dismissal of National Security Adviser Mike Waltz at the beginning of the month for “plotting with Israel” on potential strikes against Iran.

In a further undermining of Israeli policy, Trump authorised direct negotiations with Hamas, bypassing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu entirely, culminating in the release of American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander. The US ceasefire with the Houthis in Yemen also seemingly bypassed Tel Aviv, allowing the Houthis to continue their military campaign against Israeli targets.

Even Trump’s engagement with Syria could ruffle feathers In Israel, given that it included tentative discussions around the 1974 Disengagement Accord, which could pressure Israel to relinquish control of a critical 400-metre buffer zone inside Syria. While he was on his MENA trip, Trump also refused to extend the deadline for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. These developments are to the benefit of Saudi Arabia, which is positioning itself to play a central role in stabilising both Lebanon and Syria.

The GCC    
For the Gulf, Trump’s tour was a calculated opportunity to reaffirm strategic influence and deepen bilateral leverage.

Saudi Arabia used the occasion to double down on its role as a regional actor, not just economically but also politically.

Its $142bn defence agreement, which includes deals across air defence, space tech and border security, reflects Riyadh’s ambition to maintain regional security primacy.

Investment pledges to US industry, meanwhile, including $20bn in AI infrastructure and $14.2bn in gas turbine and energy solutions, are part of Saudi’s vision to increase economic diversification through technology and remain the region’s major energy player.

On the strategic side, by positioning the Kingdom as a stabilising force in Lebanon and a potential post-conflict partner in Syria, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is seeking to secure long-term regional influence for Riyadh.

For Qatar, the record-breaking Boeing deal is a commitment to significantly enhancing its defence posture and deepening its strategic partnership with the US. At the same time, Doha continues to play a critical mediation role in Gaza.

The Trump administration is actively leveraging Qatari channels to push for a potential ceasefire or the establishment of a humanitarian corridor. Trump has pledged that by the end of this month the US will oversee the delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza to address the worsening famine.

The UAE, meanwhile, hosted high-level talks with Ukrainian officials, as Trump’s focus shifts to the Russia-Ukraine war. Given its trade relationships with both Russia and the US, as well as its role in reconstructing Ukraine’s economy, the UAE has positioned itself as the ideal host for these talks. The UAE’s expanding cooperation with Washington in artificial intelligence and clean energy further strengthens its role as a hub for technology and defence.

What’s next?

Trump’s MENA tour has the potential to have a far-reaching effect on the region’s strategic and economic balance.

Syria’s return to the international community will take time, but lifting US sanctions is certainly an optimistic first step. If nuclear talks with Iran move forward, it could signal a new era for the Middle East, with Israel’s influence in Washington weakening while Gulf states – particularly Saudi – grow in power by embedding themselves in Lebanon and Syria’s stabilisation and regeneration projects.

Considerable challenges remain. Syria’s ability to unify its fragmented factions and effectively utilise foreign investment to revive its economy will be crucial in deciding its fate.

Equally decisive will be Israel’s willingness (or lack thereof) to withdraw its buffer zone within Syria, pull its troops from Lebanon and permit the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza.