Geopolitics and security

Iran holds back retaliation, heightens regional uncertainty

At the end of last month, Iran declared its intention to retaliate following the assassination of a high-ranking Hamas leader in Tehran, raising concerns in Israel about the possibility of an imminent attack. Nearly two weeks have passed without a significant response from Iran, which has left both Israel and the broader Middle East on high alert. Iran is seeking to respond decisively while avoiding an all-out conflict with Israel, particularly considering the recent formation of a new government in Tehran, which may be complicating decision-making.

What might an Iranian response look like? Iran’s response could manifest through various means and from multiple fronts, leveraging its extensive network of proxy forces, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi militia in Yemen. This capability enables Iran to launch attacks that could target Israeli interests from northern Israel to the Red Sea. While Iranian officials, including foreign-ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani, have insisted on the need to punish Israel, they have also emphasised the intention to avoid escalating regional tensions. Leaders from the US, Britain, France, Germany and Italy have urged Iran to reconsider its military threats and expressed support for Israel’s defence.

Regional impact and what’s next? The repercussions of this crisis extend beyond Iran and Israel, influencing regional dynamics. The onus is on Iran to deploy a strategy that balances the need to demonstrate strength with the desire for relief from Western sanctions and international isolation. Analysts suggest that the new Iranian government, currently undergoing cabinet approvals, is taking a measured approach to decision-making, as indicated by the resignation of the Iranian vice-president after 11 days in office. As tensions simmer, the US has increased its military readiness in the region, deploying additional combat aircraft, warships and a guided-missile submarine to bolster Israel’s defences and convey a clear message of support. The situation remains fluid, and the coming weeks look crucial in terms of Iran’s response and its impact on the overall stability of the region.

Hamas and Israel: Latest developments in ceasefire talks

Ceasefire negotiations resumed in Doha on August 15 amid prevailing pessimism and escalating tensions. The discussions, described by the Biden administration as part of a “final stage” effort, involve Israeli representatives alongside US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators. A significant hurdle is the absence of Hamas, which has expressed that it will only engage in discussions to implement previously agreed terms that have not been met. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has added new conditions to the negotiations. The talks come at a critical time, with Iran poised to retaliate against Israel for the recent assassinations of key figures in both Hamas and Hezbollah.

Gaza ceasefire talks now: The Biden administration has been engaging with key regional players, including officials from Jordan, Egypt and Qatar. In parallel, a military buildup is occurring in the Middle East, with the US dispatching additional naval assets and enhancing its military presence to deter any potential Iranian aggression.

The humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate, with over 40,000 reported deaths since the onset of the conflict – almost 2% of Gaza’s population. Access to humanitarian aid remains severely restricted, especially with the Rafah border crossing closed since early May. Reports indicate that basic resources like clean water are scarce, catalysing a series of health crises, including the risk of polio outbreaks.

What’s next? The chance of a breakthrough in ceasefire talks appears slim, with both Israeli and Hamas leaders reluctant to appear overly eager to make concessions. Analysts suggest that international pressure may influence Iran’s calculus regarding its anticipated retaliation. The situation remains precarious, with deepening humanitarian needs in Gaza putting pressure on diplomatic discussions to provide a clear path forward. For those on the ground, daily survival has become the primary concern, overshadowing any hope for immediate relief through diplomatic resolutions.

Turkey, Iraq enhance cooperation with new military and security pact

Turkey and Iraq have formalised their commitment to collaboration in military, security and counter-terrorism by signing a memorandum of understanding on August 12. The agreement is significant considering a history of tension over Turkey’s cross-border military operations targeting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). While Iraq has criticised these operations as violations of its sovereignty, Turkey argues that such measures are essential for its national security.

Regional and stakeholder impact: The agreement is viewed as a significant milestone for both countries, with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasising its “historic importance.” Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein acknowledged the unique nature of this collaboration in the context of their bilateral relations. The establishment of a Joint Security Coordination Centre in Baghdad and a Joint Training and Cooperation Centre in Bashiqa aims to enhance mutual efforts against terrorism.

This partnership reflects a shift in Iraq’s stance toward the PKK, which has been involved in a decades-long insurgency against Turkey. The PKK is classified as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and the EU, and the ongoing conflict has resulted in over 40,000 fatalities. The hope is that strengthened cooperation will better equip Iraq to handle security threats, while also fostering stability in the region.

What’s next? Both nations are positioned to deepen their collaboration in counter-terrorism initiatives. Turkey has expressed a desire for Iraq to officially designate the PKK as a terrorist organisation, which could further solidify diplomatic ties. The success of the joint training and coordination initiatives will depend on effective implementation and commitment from both sides, particularly when it comes to enhancing Iraq’s military capabilities.

Humanitarian

Yemen experiences new floods, worsening humanitarian situation

Severe flooding in Yemen has resulted in at least 57 fatalities and affected over 34,000 families due to heavy rains that started in March 2024 and recently escalate13. The flooding has exacerbated the existing humanitarian crisis, which has been fuelled by nearly a decade of civil conflict. The hardest-hit regions include Hudaydah, Hajjah, Taiz and Marib, where infrastructure damage and displacement of families have been reported.

Regional and stakeholder impact: The flooding underscores the dire humanitarian conditions in Yemen, which has faced extensive suffering due to an ongoing civil war. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) characterised the disaster’s magnitude as overwhelming, highlighting the urgent humanitarian needs arising from both the flooding and the protracted conflict. Additionally, the Houthi rebels have been criticised for their lack of response to the destruction in areas under their control, raising concerns about governance and accountability during the crisis. The conflict has significantly hampered humanitarian efforts, creating additional challenges in responding to the needs of the population.

Regional and stakeholder impact: The flooding underscores the dire humanitarian conditions in Yemen, which has faced extensive suffering due to an ongoing civil war. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) characterised the disaster’s magnitude as overwhelming, highlighting the urgent humanitarian needs arising from both the flooding and the protracted conflict. Additionally, the Houthi rebels have been criticised for their lack of response to the destruction in areas under their control, raising concerns about governance and accountability during the crisis. The conflict has significantly hampered humanitarian efforts, creating additional challenges in responding to the needs of the population.

What’s next? The IOM is ramping up emergency operations to address the immediate needs of those affected by the floods. However, the continuing conflict may complicate and delay relief efforts. Humanitarian organisations will face significant obstacles in delivering aid, particularly due to damaged infrastructure and ongoing hostilities.

Collaboration between local and international agencies will be crucial in managing relief operations effectively.