Geopolitics 

Iran’s Khamenei signals openness to re-engage in nuclear talks  

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reopened the door to talks with the US over Iran’s nuclear programme. In a recent address to the civilian government, Khamenei said there may be benefits to engaging with the “enemy“ but warned against trusting Washington. His remarks echo sentiments from the period leading up to the 2015 nuclear deal, which significantly limited Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. Khamenei’s comments set a clear perimeter for any talks that may take place under President Masoud Pezeshkian’s reformist government.  

Regional Impact: The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly stemming from the Israel-Hamas war, significantly complicate Iran’s diplomatic landscape. Iran’s relations with Israel have reached new lows, highlighted by a recent drone-and-missile attack on Israel and retaliatory threats following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.  

Additionally, the escalation of the country’s nuclear programme since the collapse of the 2015 deal – uranium enrichment levels are nearing weapons-grade purity – have further strained its relations with the international community. Tehran is uncertain how a potential change in US administration come November will affect its diplomatic efforts. 

What’s Next? Pezeshkian’s administration, particularly through foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, who was involved in the 2015 negotiations, may seek to reengage with the West. The Biden administration has expressed a preference for diplomatic solutions, but Iran’s retaliatory threats against Israel complicate this objective as the US has vowed to defend Israel if attacked by Iran. The looming US elections and ongoing regional tensions will likely play pivotal roles in shaping the future of Iran-US relations. 

Hezbollah retaliates against Israel for assassinating its top commander 

On Sunday Hezbollah announced that it had successfully completed the initial phase of its retaliatory attacks against Israel following the assassination of its top military commander, Fouad Shukr, a month ago. The Lebanese group said it had launched hundreds of rockets and kamikaze drones at “important Israeli military targets.”. Israeli media indicated that the attack likely targeted the Mossad headquarters near Tel Aviv, approximately 100 km from the Lebanese border. 

Regional Impact: Israel’s pre-emptive attack intercepted most of Hezbollah’s strikes. Lebanese officials confirmed that Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanese towns and extended deep into Lebanon, but Hezbollah refuted Israeli claims that its rocket capabilities had been destroyed.  Following the attack, Israel declared a state of emergency in central regions and temporarily closed Ben Gurion Airport, but later lifted the emergency measures. 

What’s Next? Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary general, stated in a live address that the group had delayed its response to Israel’s assassination of Shukr to allow for ceasefire discussions. He emphasised that the delay ended when it became clear that negotiations were not progressing. He concluded by stating that Hezbollah would evaluate the impact of the recent operation and might respond again if necessary. 

Houthi Red Sea attacks threaten severe ecological disaster 

The Pentagon has reported that the Greek-flagged tanker Sounion, which was attacked by Yemen’s Houthis on August 21, is still ablaze and appears to be leaking oil after being stuck by multiple projectiles near Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah. The vessel is carrying approximately 1m barrels of crude oil, raising significant environmental concerns. 

Regional Impact: The Houthis have been targeting shipping in the Red Sea since last November, claiming their actions are in solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing war in Gaza. Pentagon spokesperson Air Force Major General Patrick Ryder described the leaking tanker as a navigational hazard and a potential environmental disaster.In response to the situation, the EU’s Red Sea naval mission dispatched a unit to protect the Sounion’s crew. The crew abandoned the vessel and were subsequently rescued without any reported injuries.

What’s Next? This incident marks the third attack on a Delta Tankers-operated vessel in the Red Sea this month. The Sounion was enroute from Iraq to Greece at the time of the attack. The ongoing actions of the Houthis have led to significant disruptions in global shipping, prompting many shipowners to reroute their vessels to avoid the Red Sea, resulting in longer and more expensive journeys around the southern tip of Africa.

Humanitarian: 

UN suspends aid operations following Israeli expulsion order 

UN aid operations in Gaza were suspended on Monday following an Israeli order that forcibly displaced Palestinians from Deir al-Balah, where the UN’s operation centre is located. This action occurred as the UN was preparing to initiate a polio vaccination campaign for approximately 640,000 children under the age of 10, shortly after a 10-month-old baby was paralysed by the type 2 poliovirus. 

Stakeholder Impact: The UN has temporarily halted – but not formally suspended – its aid efforts. The UN’s main operations centre had previously been in Rafah, in southern Gaza, until Israel displaced over 1m Palestinians from that area earlier this year. The UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) continued to provide health and other services, though it faced significant challenges, with more than 200 staff members killed by Israeli forces. 

What’s Next? UNRWA has reported that only three out of 18 water wells in Deir al-Balah are operational, resulting in an 85% water shortfall. More than 3,000 personnel were set to participate in the polio vaccination campaign following the discovery of the first type 2 polio case in Gaza in 25 years.  Meanwhile, the World Food Programme (WFP) announced that it had managed to deliver only half of the 24,000 metric tonnes of food aid needed for 1.1m people.   

Sudan floods cause fatalities and exacerbate humanitarian crisis 

The Arbaat Dam in Sudan’s eastern Red Sea state collapsed over the weekend due to heavy rains, resulting in flooding that affected nearby homes and caused at least 30 fatalities. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) indicated that the actual death toll could be higher. It reported that some 70 villages were impacted, with 20 completely destroyed.  

Regional Impact: The OCHA’s assessment of the damage caused by the weekend’s floods continues. Some 10,000 livestock are reported missing and 70 schools either damaged or destroyed. This month’s heavy rains and floods have impacted over 317,000 individuals, displacing 118,000 and worsening one of the largest displacement crises in the world amid ongoing conflict in Sudan. 

What’s Next? Without immediate action, more people will be displaced and pushed into flood zones, exacerbating the crisis and increasing the risk of severe issues like child malnutrition and widespread disease outbreaks. More than 75% of healthcare infrastructure in Sudan has been destroyed since the conflict began.