Geopolitics

Must read: Lebanon reels from pager attack

This week, Lebanon was hit by a series of deadly explosions caused by booby-trapped communication devices, resulting in dozens of deaths and thousands of injuries. The attacks, which had Hezbollah members as primary targets, began when a series of pagers detonated across Beirut and its suburbs on Tuesday, killing at least 14 people. Similar attacks followed on Wednesday, this time involving walkie-talkies, causing at least 20 more deaths and 2800 injuries.

Regional and stakeholder impact:

Sources suggest that Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, infiltrated Hezbollah’s supply chains months in advance, embedding explosives in communication devices like pagers and walkie-talkies. The devices were likely to have been detonated through remote hacking or coded signals, showing a high level of technical sophistication and deep penetration of Hezbollah’s networks.

The use of such unconventional tactics, weaponising everyday devices, have provoked widespread international condemnation. Hezbollah, Lebanon’s Prime Minister and several countries have publicly denounced the attack, accusing Israel of violating international law and escalating regional tensions. Iran, a key ally of Hezbollah, strongly condemned the operation, while other regional actors expressed concern over the growing use of advanced technology in military operations. Although Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement, the global reaction reflects heightened sensitivity to Israel’s increasing reliance on technological warfare in its conflicts.

What’s next?

No one has officially claimed responsibility for the attacks, though Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have blamed Israel. Reports indicate that Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant informed US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin of an impending attack on Lebanon shortly before the first explosions on Tuesday. The victims of these attacks include both Hezbollah members and civilians, including children and health workers. The daughter of Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon was also among the wounded.

As Lebanon grapples with the aftermath of the attacks, the focus of the international community is on the implications of these attacks for hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. Hezbollah has already described the pager attack as a “declaration of war” by Israel. The involvement of advanced technology in the attack may signal a new phase in the ongoing conflict, with the unexpected nature of the explosions heightening tensions and increasing the sense of insecurity throughout Lebanon. The scale and audacity of the attack means that a retaliation from Hezbollah is all but expected.

Algerian president re-elected in landslide victory

On September 14 Algeria’s Constitutional Court confirmed President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s re-election, securing 84.3% of votes cast in the September 7 election. Tebboune, who was widely expected to win, had focused more on voter turnout, which was reported at 46.1% from over 24m registered voters. The National Independent Authority for Elections (ANIE) had initially announced that Tebboune garnered nearly 95% of the votes, but the results were adjusted after two legal challenges by opponents. Despite the allegations of voting irregularities, the court confirmed Tebboune’s victory.

Stakeholder and regional impact:

The election faced scrutiny from various political figures and analysts. Abdelaali Hassani Cherif, representing the conservative Movement of Society for Peace, and Youcef Aouchiche of the Socialist Forces Front, both contested the initial results, citing fraud and irregularities in the vote count. Even Tebboune’s own campaign expressed concerns about discrepancies in the participation figures reported by ANIE. Tebboune has in the past faced criticism from Amnesty International, among other human rights organisations, for restricting civic freedoms and his “zero-tolerance approach to dissenting opinions”. The outcome of this election is likely to influence Algeria’s political stability and regional standing, perpetuating scrutiny on the exercise of democratic freedoms under Tebboune’s administration.

What’s next?

Tebboune is set to be inaugurated for his second term. However, the controversies surrounding the election and voter turnout may undermine his legitimacy on the global stage. Moving forward, his administration is expected to face continued criticism over human rights issues and demands for greater political reform, both from opposition parties and civil society groups. The focus will now shift to how Tebboune handles internal dissent and whether he can deliver on his promises to stabilise the country while maintaining democratic values.

New Jordanian Prime Minister enters office

King Abdullah II of Jordan has appointed Jafar Hassan as the new prime minister following the country’s latest parliamentary elections. The appointment was made after  former Prime Minister Bisher Khasawneh resigned, as is customary after parliamentary elections in Jordan. Hassan, 56, previously served as the planning minister and the king’s chief of staff, making him a well-known figure within the Jordanian political landscape. In his official statement, the king called on Hassan to prioritise supporting Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank and Jerusalem, emphasising the need for Arab and international cooperation to safeguard the Palestinian people and halt violations of humanitarian laws.

Stakeholder and regional impact:

The recent elections, held under a new electoral law, aimed to boost the influence of political parties in Jordan’s traditionally tribal-dominated parliament. The 2022 electoral reforms allocated 41 out of 138 parliamentary seats to political parties, with the Islamic Action Front (IAF), the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, securing up to 20% of the seats. Despite this shift, tribal, centrist and pro-government factions still hold significant power. The king’s directive for Jafar Hassan to focus on Palestinian support highlights Jordan’s ongoing commitment to regional stability and its strong stance on Palestinian issues, which resonates deeply in Jordan, home to a significant Palestinian population.

What’s Next?

Jafar Hassan’s immediate priorities will involve navigating both domestic and regional challenges. Domestically, he will need to address the voter apathy that characterised this election, with turnout at just 32% among the 5.1m eligible voters. This figure represents only a slight increase from the 29% turnout in the 2020 elections. On the international front, Hassan’s leadership is likely to focus on enhancing Jordan’s role in Arab and international efforts to defend Palestinian rights and promote stability in the region, particularly as tensions in Gaza and the West Bank continue to rise.

Houthi airstrike breaches Israel’s defences

On September 15, a missile launched by the Iran-aligned Houthi group in Yemen reached central Israel for the first time. This marked a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Houthis, who have been targeting Israel in solidarity with Palestinians since the Gaza war began in October. The missile, a new hypersonic ballistic type, travelled over 2,000 km and took less than 12 minutes to reach its destination. Although no direct casualties were reported, nine people were injured while seeking shelter. The missile was intercepted mid-air by Israeli defence systems, but fragments fell in fields and near a railway station in central Israel.

Regional and stakeholder impact:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed retaliation, warning the Houthis they would pay a “heavy price” for this attack. He referenced past Israeli airstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen, such as the July strike on Hodeida port that followed a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv. The Houthis have repeatedly launched missiles and drones at Israel as part of their support for the Palestinian cause. Though previous missile attacks had limited impact, with the deepest penetration being near Eilat in March, this recent strike marks a significant escalation in the Houthis’ ability to target Israel’s core regions. In retaliation, Israeli airstrikes have resulted in casualties and damage to Houthi military assets.

What’s next?

The Houthis, emboldened by their recent success, warned that further strikes are likely as the first anniversary of October 7 approaches. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Sarea hinted at continued aggression in response to Israeli actions in Yemen. Meanwhile, Israeli officials are expected to increase military operations against Houthi forces, with Netanyahu’s government signalling a tough response. As tensions continue to rise, the conflict may see further escalations in both missile attacks and retaliatory strikes, with implications for the broader region.

Saudi Crown Prince says no normalisation with Israel without Palestinian statehood

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declared that Saudi Arabia will not establish formal diplomatic relations with Israel unless a Palestinian state is established with East Jerusalem as its capital. In his annual address to the Shura Council on September 18, 2024, bin Salman reaffirmed Saudi Arabia’s commitment to the Palestinian cause, emphasising the Kingdom’s commitment to helping secure an independent Palestinian state. He also condemned Israeli actions, calling them violations of international and humanitarian law. The crown prince’s statement comes after significant progress toward normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel prior to the escalation of violence in Gaza following the Hamas attack on October 7.

Regional and stakeholder impact:

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s latest speech marks a bold and unequivocal statement on Saudi Arabia’s position regarding the Palestinian issue, signalling a clear departure from earlier, more ambiguous rhetoric. Unlike previous discussions, where the possibility of normalisation with Israel seemed to be progressing behind the scenes, the Crown Prince has now set a firm condition: no diplomatic ties will be established without the creation of a Palestinian state. This declaration not only reaffirms Saudi Arabia’s commitment to Palestinian statehood but also sends a strong message to the international community, particularly the United States.

The Biden administration has been heavily invested in securing a normalisation deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, viewing it as a significant foreign policy win. However, bin Salman’s explicit stance complicates this process and will likely influence U.S. policies moving forward. This could alter the trajectory of U.S. diplomatic efforts, given how crucial this deal was to President Biden’s regional strategy.

What’s next?

While normalisation talks have been delayed, U.S. and Saudi officials continue to push forward with diplomatic efforts. Although Prince Khalid bin Bandar had previously suggested that an agreement was close, the Gaza war has significantly shifted the timeline. The Palestinian issue remains central to the Saudi population, and despite Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) willingness to consider normalising relations with Israel – when the time is right – it is a difficult sell under current circumstances. The King’s firm commitment to the Arab Peace Initiative (API), which calls for a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, further complicates any immediate steps toward formal ties.

Given this strong stance, normalisation is likely, but not without significant progress on the Palestinian front. This, combined with the growing public sensitivity toward the war in Gaza, will delay any formal establishment of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. As negotiations progress, the future of these relations will hinge on both the resolution of the Palestinian conflict and the broader geopolitical dynamics in the region.