1 To Watch
Turkey’s earthquakes raise questions over dam safety and its transboundary implications
February’s disaster has renewed international scrutiny of the safety of Turkey’s dams and the risks they pose to downstream states.
March 29, 2023
Will Washington’s GCC allies be expected to pick a side?
Note: This edition of 3 To watch was distributed in full on October 12.
The UAE hovers between controlled competition with Beijing in East Africa and full engagement in the BRI, not only operating ports in China and along the String of Pearls network but bowing to Beijing’s prevalence in ports investments in the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean region.
Abu Dhabi views Chinese connectivity projects as more viable than multinational ones (see INSTC), and in 2019 it invited COSCO Shipping Ports to manage Khalifa Port. In turn, China has been strategically savvy in navigating Middle East politics, for example by investing in Lebanon’s Tripoli port to service the reconstruction of Syria and Iraq rather than focusing solely on its Bay Port project in Israel.
Nonetheless, Western appetite to finance infrastructure projects in developing countries is likely to strengthen middle powers like the UAE, which have carved out a role as an alternative financial backer of logistics investments. France, Germany, Japan, India, the UAE – and even Turkey – could strengthen partnerships outside the US umbrella in a multipolar rejection of a renewed ‘Cold War’ in development finance.
Although closer to China’s opaque model of state capitalism, the UAE may also benefit from partnering in EU-backed initiatives that promote the federation’s knowledge-based rebranding.
1 To Watch
February’s disaster has renewed international scrutiny of the safety of Turkey’s dams and the risks they pose to downstream states.
March 29, 2023
1 To Watch
The Abraham Accords have rapidly increased opportunities for collaboration between signatory states and Israel – a global leader in water management and technology – on improving water and food security.
March 2, 2023
1 To Watch
Fresh EU sanctions and a G7-led price cap on Russian crude have sought to safeguard global oil supplies and prices, but energy markets will struggle to absorb their impact.
December 6, 2022
© Azure Strategy 2023.