MENA Strategic Bulletin – Israel escalates in Doha and Gaza

On Tuesday, Israel launched a direct missile strike on Qatari territory, targeting a Hamas delegation meeting to discuss a US-brokered ceasefire proposal. The attack, carried out in Doha’s upscale Leqtaifiya district, killed six people including a Qatari security officer, but reportedly missed senior Hamas figures.

The Qatari Emir condemned Israel for conducting a “reckless criminal attack” in a phone call with US President Donald Trump. The White House said that President Trump had assured Sheikh Tamim that such an incident would not happen again. However, Trump simultaneously sought to downplay US involvement, writing on Truth Social that “This was a decision made by [Israel’s] Prime Minister Netanyahu, it was not a decision made by me.” He added that the US military had notified him “too late to stop the attack.” GCC states have issued statements of solidarity with Qatar and have begun a series of visits to Doha to show their full support.

The strike dims prospects of halting the IDF’s ground offensive in Gaza City, which pressed ahead this week despite rising tensions between Israel’s political and military leadership. At a security cabinet meeting on Sunday, armed forces chief Ayal Zamir warned ministers that the offensive could endanger hostages’ lives – contradicting a core cabinet objective of returning all remaining captives.

What this means

Tuesday’s strike was unprecedented. Post the October 2023 attacks, Israel has violated the sovereignty of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran in pursuit of its war aims; however, this is the first time it has attacked the territory of a US ally that is simultaneously serving as a central mediator in internationally backed ceasefire talks. It is the clearest example yet that Israel is operating on the principle that no territory is off-limits if perceived to be harbouring threats. It has shown it is willing to violate international law in pursuit of its aims – even if that alienates partners and increases its isolation on the world stage.

Impact on Gaza

Israel’s actions effectively torpedo hopes for a diplomatic solution ending the war in Gaza. Qatar has said it will continue to mediate – after a pause – though its credibility as a peace broker has taken a hit. Israel has sent a clear signal that the goal of eliminating Hamas takes precedence over negotiations, including hostage releases, and it can no longer be considered a good-faith actor in talks.

The strike’s timing, just prior to a UN General Assembly (UNGA) meeting where several countries are expected to recognise Palestinian sovereignty, shows that the level of international pressure is insufficient to urge Israel to moderate its war aims. Israel is clearly confident that its relations with the White House will withstand any unilateral military action it may take – in the occupied Palestinian territories and beyond – including actions that further undermine the already weakened international rules-based order.

Impact on the Gulf states and Abraham Accords

Israel has essentially attacked the security of the GCC by striking Qatar, shaking assumptions underpinning the US-built security architecture. Qatar hosts the Al Udeid air base, the forward headquarters of US Central Command’s air operations, yet its sovereignty was violated without prior restraint from Washington. This shows Gulf allies of the US that the Trump administration lacks either the will or the capacity to restrain Israel. The fact that Washington backed a unanimous UN Security Council statement on Thursday condemning the strike suggests Israel may have crossed a line with the White House, but for Gulf states the key concern is whether this translates into concrete assurances. They are likely to press harder for explicit guarantees while accelerating diversification of security partnerships, including with China.

For the Abraham Accords, the events of this week may be the breaking point. The goal of Israeli integration has dissipated. Prospects for further normalization with Israel will be shelved and GCC states that have already normalized – the UAE and Bahrain – will face intra-GCC pressure to scale back visible cooperation. The UAE is unlikely to leave the accords but will move partnerships out of public view; it has already banned Israel from the upcoming Dubai Air Show.

What’s next

Diplomatic backlash

Israel will face a significant diplomatic backlash. All 15 UN Security Council members, including the US, have condemned the strike and called for de-escalation. Arab states will also mount a coordinated response – an emergency Arab–Islamic Summit has been set for early next week. The collective chastisement is unlikely to result in substantive policy changes towards Israel by global actors; however, it will deepen Israel’s isolation. Public pressure on states to curb Israeli aggression is growing – reflected in moves by several of its traditional allies to recognise a Palestinian state at UNGA next week. Yet nothing short of concrete measures – sanctions most notably – will cause Israel to adopt a less aggressive posture.

Yemen front

Israel also struck critical Houthi military sites in the Yemeni capital Sanaa and surrounding Al Jawf province this week. The attacks follow a logic of decimating opponents’ command and control infrastructure, logistical facilities and propaganda organs in a bid to degrade capability. More attacks are likely as long as the Houthis continue to threaten Red Sea shipping – which is to be expected given Israel’s latest offensives in Gaza and threats to annex the West Bank.