1 To Watch
The Houthis have won the Red Sea
International commerce and Western navies have been forced to accept a new normal, and there are few signs of change coming soon.
October 1, 2024
Tehran is working to demonstrate that its policy of ‘diplomacy with teeth’ will bring solutions to the table.
Note: This edition of 3 To watch was distributed in full on October 5.
Tehran is concerned that Biden will not be able to secure an agreement domestically to meet Iran’s demands should negotiations resume. The US president is facing declining approval ratings after the Afghanistan withdrawal and difficulties within the Democratic Party in passing his domestic agenda.
Given the polarity in the US Congress and the possibility of a shakeup in the 2024 presidential elections, Iran is conscious that it could lose out in future if it agrees to concessions now. For its part, the E3 countries are frustrated with the lack of progress and feel there is little prospect of a breakthrough in the near term. France, Germany, and the UK are increasingly aware that they have next-to-zero leverage now. The deadlock can only be broken by the US and Iran.
Amir-Abdollahian suggested during UNGA that Tehran was preparing to return to Vienna ‘soon’, although what that means in practice remains unclear. Should the November timeline be pushed back to the year’s end, the E3 will turn to Plan B – which is a problem as it is not yet defined.
Tehran is still finalising its negotiating team, but it has announced that that any final agreement will be made at ministerial level with the ultimate decision-making authority resting with the supreme leader and the Supreme National Security Council.
Bagheri Kani’s appointment signals a more rigid stance in negotiations, but mainly for the domestic audience. Considered “within the family” – his brother is married to Ayatollah Khamenei’s daughter – he will not go to Vienna with the intention to torpedo talks: the desire to revive the deal is there. However, the new negotiating team will lack the language skills and subject-matter expertise of their predecessors, and their foreign counterparts should be prepared for more erratic statements and maximalist claims.
1 To Watch
International commerce and Western navies have been forced to accept a new normal, and there are few signs of change coming soon.
October 1, 2024
1 To Watch
Hezbollah continues to attack Israel, but war in Lebanon is never worth it
July 24, 2024
1 To Watch
February’s disaster has renewed international scrutiny of the safety of Turkey’s dams and the risks they pose to downstream states.
March 29, 2023
© Azure Strategy 2024.