MENA Strategic Bulletin

Geopolitics

Israel starts a new offensive in northern Gaza

One year on from October 7, Israeli forces have intensified their assault on northern Gaza, specifically targeting Jabalia Camp as part of a controversial “general plan” put forth by retired Major-General Giora Eiland, which aims to displace over 400,000 Palestinians from northern Gaza to establish a “closed military zone”. The assault, which began during the night of October 6, has involved extensive air strikes and a complete siege of Jabalia Camp. This latest phase of the Israeli incursion into northern Gaza has killed 220 people, isolating the camp from Jabalia City and rendering escape impossible for residents, despite orders to evacuate southward.

Regional and stakeholder impact

There are fears the latest Israeli incursion is intended to claim territory in Gaza, a move Washington would strongly object to US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller has emphasised. However, the US’s objections hold little weight in practice, as Israel has consistently disregarded established “red lines” set by the Biden administration without facing repercussions. Any potential territorial annexation would increase the likelihood of escalation from Palestinian-aligned parties in the region.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in northern Gaza is deteriorating rapidly. The lack of water and inadequate sanitary conditions pose severe threats to the well-being of civilians, increasing the need for urgent assistance from UNRWA and other international led missions.

What’s next?

As the Israeli military continues its operations in Jabalia and beyond, the future for northern Gaza remains uncertain. With much of the international community’s attention on the IDF’s incursions into Lebanon and rising tensions with Iran, the fear is that Israel will use this moment to facilitate mass displacement in Jabaliya while increasing the death toll and worsening humanitarian conditions. The implementation of the “general plan” could lead to significant demographic changes and impact the whole of Gaza. While Israel may look to cross this red line while US President Joe Biden remains in power, any such move would risk further inflaming hostilities with Iran and Iran-backed proxies, as well as drawing the condemnation of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan and Egypt, all of whom have made clear their strong opposition to any territorial change in Gaza.

IDF tactics in Lebanon draw international condemnation

Israel has drawn criticism from the international community after the IDF shot and wounded two UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeepers on Thursday at UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura, southern Lebanon. Countries such as Spain, Italy and Lebanon condemned the incident, which UNIFIL insists was a deliberate strike and a violation of international humanitarian law. In response, UNIFIL has relocated approximately 300 peacekeepers to larger bases for safety. Elsewhere in Lebanon, Israeli operations have advanced into central Beirut, increasing the civilian casualty rate and drawing further scrutiny on their methods of warfare.

Despite Israel’s multifaceted attacks in Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to demonstrate strong operational capacity: on October 8, the group launched more than 100 rockets at Haifa, marking the largest bombardment the city has experienced since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict. Nonetheless, Hezbollah Deputy Leader Naim Qassem’s statement on Tuesday that the group would be willing to consider a ceasefire has been interpreted by the US government as testament to the success of Israeli attacks.

Regional and stakeholder impact

With Israel’s offensive in Lebanon posing a direct threat to UN peacekeepers and creating a deteriorating humanitarian situation, the incentive for international stakeholders to come up with a diplomatic solution to the conflict is increasing. Hospitals already strained by a prolonged economic crisis now face an influx of wounded patients, while Israeli airstrikes along the Syrian border and near Beirut’s international airport have disrupted aid deliveries. With local healthcare and aid capacities at their limit, the international community may need to consider resettlement options.

What’s next?

The ongoing conflict raises critical questions about Hezbollah’s leadership, particularly following the reported killing of Hashem Safieddine, who was positioned as a likely successor to Hassan Nasrallah. Safieddine’s death could significantly impact Hezbollah’s strategic direction, as the group navigates internal power dynamics and reassesses its response to intensified Israeli military actions. Meanwhile, the role of the US in influencing Israel towards a ceasefire remains uncertain. The refugee crisis is a pressing concern, after exceeding 1m displaced civilians, with an increasing influx of refugees into Iraq and other neighbouring countries. The reluctance of the international community to add to the number of refugees seeking asylum may prove crucial in the push for a diplomatic solution and eventual ceasefire.

Riyadh meets with Tehran as Iran-Israel tensions rise

While international focus centred on a potential Israeli attack on Iran, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan on the sidelines of an Asian Cooperation Dialogue meeting in Doha on Wednesday. The meeting signalled a continued effort to engage diplomatically, with the Saudi foreign minister emphasising the kingdom’s intention to “close the book on disagreements with Iran forever” and develop a friendly relationship.

Gulf states are closely monitoring the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Iran’s October 1 attack on Israel, comprising nearly 200 ballistic missiles aimed at air bases and other sites in central and southern Israel, is seen as symbolically significant despite its relatively minor impact. It showcased Iran’s military arsenal and precision in reaching military targets in Israel. The attack was a retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other senior figures affiliated with Hamas and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The resulting fears among Gulf states centre around the potential for a heavy-handed Israeli response, which could threaten their energy assets and disrupt the smooth flow of oil and gas trade.

Regional and stakeholder impact

The recent thawing of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which was facilitated by a Chinese-mediated agreement in 2023, has allowed both nations to re-establish diplomatic ties. This rapprochement has provided Saudi Arabia with some degree of protection against attacks from Iran-backed groups like the Houthis. However, Gulf leaders remain on edge, particularly following comments from US President Joe Biden indicating that Israel is considering strikes on Iranian oil installations, raising concerns that possible retaliatory attacks could harm Gulf energy assets.

The improvement in Saudi Iranian relations comes at a critical moment, as Tehran has cautioned Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states against allowing Israeli missiles to use their airspace or military bases. Iran has warned that such actions would trigger a strong response against these Gulf states.

What’s next?

The shifting geopolitical landscape raises questions regarding the future of Iran-Saudi relations and broader regional stability. Amidst the ongoing war in Gaza, Saudi Arabia’s prospects for normalisation with Israel have been effectively frozen. The kingdom seeks security guarantees from the US while trying to solidify its role as a key player within the Gulf and the Middle East. The pursuit of a stable and peaceful relationship with Iran will be critical in preventing escalations with the implications of a possible Israeli response and more direct confrontations with Iran.

 Biden and Netanyahu discuss attack on Iran

As tensions escalate in the Middle East, the stakes are high for both Israel and the US. President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday for the first time in over a month amid rising tensions following Iran’s missile attacks and Israel’s military actions against Hezbollah. The US and EU have drawn a red line on attacks targeting Iran’s nuclear and oil sites. The call aimed to strategize an approach that would mitigate risks for various stakeholders, particularly given the volatility in oil and gas markets due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Regional and stakeholder impact

The Biden administration has been increasingly concerned about Israel’s expanding military campaign, which risks provoking a broader conflict in the region. Recent Israeli successes against Hamas and Hezbollah have raised alarms in Washington, with fears that Netanyahu might target Iran’s nuclear programme next. Following Iran’s recent missile barrage, Biden initially threatened severe consequences for Tehran but has since toned down the rhetoric, ruling out support for strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He also suggested alternatives to targeting Iranian oil sites, as such actions could potentially lead Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for 21% of global crude oil trade.

As for Iran, it is currently engaged in intense diplomacy, highlighted by its recent meeting with Saudi Arabia to secure commitments from Gulf states to close their airspace to Israel. Additionally, it has held discussions with Russia—marking the first meeting between Putin and the new Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian —where Putin noted that their positions on international events are closely aligned, further solidifying Iran’s allies.

What’s next?

The relationship between Biden and Netanyahu is strained, with reports suggesting heated exchanges regarding military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Biden has also questioned whether Netanyahu is delaying a ceasefire to harm the Democratic Party presidential bid, with Netanyahu perceived as favouring former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris. As tensions persist, the prospects for a ceasefire and regional stability remain uncertain. An Israeli attack on Iranian soil remains highly likely, while Iran has asserted its readiness to defend its territory. Concurrently, Iran is leveraging its proxies to increase pressure on Israel, with Houthi forces dominating maritime trade in the Red Sea and Hezbollah launching direct attacks on Haifa and northern Israel.