MENA Strategic Bulletin

Providing analysis and strategic insights on key developments this week.

October 18, 2024 - 5 minute read

Geopolitics

The killing of Yahya Sinwar

On Thursday October 17, Israel confirmed that Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ military and political leader, was killed during an Israeli operation in Rafah, southern Gaza. Sinwar had previously served 23 years in a prison for his role in targeting Palestinians suspected of collaborating with Israel. On Friday morning, Hamas officially confirmed their leader’s death.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced that his death will not end the IDF’s campaign in Gaza, making it clear that military operations will continue until Israel’s war objectives are achieved.

Stakeholder and regional impact

The killing of the Hamas figurehead continues a trend of recent victories for Israel’s armed forces in the region. As well as insisting on the continuation of operations in Gaza, Netanyahu’s response to Sinwar’s death emphasised that the Gaza conflict is part of a broader regional struggle, suggesting he is not looking to end Israel’s multi-front war in the near future.

The US has also weighed in on Sinwar’s death, indicating that it opened the door to a possible “day after” scenario in which Hamas is no longer in control of Gaza. Biden described the late Hamas leader as a major obstacle to peace and welcomed his removal.

The Biden administration is also seeking to use his death as leverage to push for negotiations with Hamas, as Washington has reportedly reached out to Egypt and Qatar to restart ceasefire talks. However, Israel has shown little interest in a ceasefire at this stage, with government officials indicating that their military campaign could continue for years.

Sinwar’s elimination is a major coup for Israel, and will embolden them militarily, increasing the likelihood of further operations in Lebanon, or the execution of a much-discussed strike on Iran.

What’s next?

Looking forward, the situation remains volatile, with a strong likelihood of prolonged conflict on several fronts. Israel has made it clear that its military operations in Gaza are far from over, undermining any hopes of the Biden administration achieving a ceasefire agreement with Hamas.

The death of Yahya Sinwar will be significant for Hamas both symbolically and operationally. As a key leader and founder of its internal security apparatus, his death is a major blow to Hamas’ morale and leadership. While Hamas still has the capability to launch strikes and resist Israeli forces, Sinwar’s removal is likely to weaken its internal cohesion. His death serves as a symbolic victory for Israel, given his longstanding role within the group, but it remains unclear whether it will significantly alter the group’s capacity to function and how far they are willing to go to respond to their leader’s killing.

The US strikes Houthi targets in Yemen

On Wednesday night, the US launched airstrikes on five Houthi-controlled underground storage sites in Yemen. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin highlighted the strike as a demonstration of the Pentagon’s ability to hit deeply buried, fortified targets.

The aerial assault marked the first time the US had deployed B-2 stealth bombers in Yemen. President Joe Biden ordered the attack to weaken the Houthis’ military capabilities in response to their ongoing attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. According to Houthi media, the strikes targeted several areas around Sanaa and Saada, though no casualties were reported.

Stakeholder and regional impact

The airstrikes on Houthi targets have far-reaching implications, not only for the immediate conflict but also for broader regional dynamics. For the US, the strike sends a clear message of military dominance and strategic readiness to counter threats from Iran and its proxies. Tehran is closely monitoring US and Israeli responses as tensions over missile attacks and nuclear development escalate.

Washington’s regional allies, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt, are also closely watching the situation. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both involved in the Yemen conflict, see the assault as a strong response to Houthi aggression, which has directly threatened their own security and interests. These Gulf states may look to capitalise on the strikes to intensify their own campaigns against the Houthis.

What’s next?

Looking ahead, the US strikes are likely to trigger further escalations in the region. The Houthis, emboldened by their ties to Iran, may intensify attacks on shipping lanes or launch retaliatory strikes against US or allied assets. Iran, facing growing military pressure, could respond indirectly through its proxies across the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon or militias in Iraq and Syria. This could draw in more regional actors, particularly if Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE look to expand military efforts in Yemen.

The risk of a broader confrontation involving Iran and Israel remains high, especially as Tehran’s nuclear programme continues to provoke international concern. In this increasingly volatile environment, globally significant trade routes through the Red Sea will remain at risk, with potential economic repercussions if hostilities escalate further.

Spain and Ireland call for suspension of EU-Israel free trade agreement

Spain has urged the European Union to suspend the EU-Israel Association Agreement due to concerns over Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez stated that Spain’s position aligns with Ireland’s, as both advocate for a halt to trade relations in response to Israel’s alleged violations of the agreement’s human rights clauses.

This follows months of discussions between the two nations and other EU members. The situation escalated further after Israeli strikes targeted the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which includes Spanish and Irish troops, drawing condemnation from Spain’s Foreign Minister, Jose Manuel Albares.

Stakeholder and regional impact

The call to suspend the trade agreement signals a growing divide between Israel and certain EU nations, particularly Spain and Ireland, over human rights concerns. Both countries have a direct stake in the conflict, as their soldiers are part of the UNIFIL force impacted by Israeli strikes.

A suspension could significantly affect Israel’s trade relationship with the EU, its largest trading partner, and may prompt other EU countries to reassess their positions. For Israel, such a move would not only create economic challenges but also strain its diplomatic ties with the broader European community.

What’s next?

If the joint campaign gains further support within the EU, Israel could face the suspension of its preferential trade status, dealing a blow to its economy and further isolating it diplomatically. This would increase pressure on Israel to address its human rights record and act to delegitimise its military actions in the region.

The targeting of UN peacekeeping forces adds another layer of urgency, and any future violations involving European troops could intensify calls for stronger measures against Israel, including further sanctions or diplomatic consequences.

UN peacekeepers remain in position amid rising tensions in southern Lebanon

UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon are maintaining their positions despite calls from the IDF to relocate. Andrea Tenenti, spokesperson for the UN Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL), confirmed that a unanimous decision had been made by the UN Security Council and the 50 troop-contributing countries to continue monitoring the ongoing conflict and ensuring the delivery of aid to civilians.

Tenenti highlighted that the safety of UNIFIL personnel has been compromised due to Israeli attacks on their positions and rocket fire from Hezbollah, necessitating the suspension of most patrols near the Israel-Lebanon border.

Stakeholder and regional impact

The decision to maintain their positions underscores the commitment of UNIFIL to uphold peacekeeping mandates in a volatile environment. The IDF’s pressure on UN peacekeepers raises concerns about the safety of both the troops and civilians during ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. UNIFIL’s approximately 10,000 personnel are now facing heightened risks, with daily exchanges of fire along the “blue line” border forcing peacekeepers to seek cover. This precarious situation could strain relations between Israel and the UN, particularly if peacekeepers become further embroiled in the conflict.

What’s next?

With hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel set to continue to escalate, UNIFIL’s resolve in carrying out its peacekeeping duties is expected to be tested further. The increased frequency of military activity may lead to calls for reinforcements or adjustments to the UNIFIL mandate so as to enhance troop protection. However, any significant change could provoke backlash from Israel, which may see UNIFIL as deliberately undermining its security operations.

The UN will need to navigate this situation carefully, balancing the need for troop safety with its commitment to peacekeeping. Additionally, ongoing negotiations among the UN Security Council members regarding the future of UNIFIL could influence its operational scope, especially if security conditions in southern Lebanon do not improve.

Kanz Majdalawi

Kanz Majdalawi