MENA Strategic Bulletin

Trump’s cabinet appointments and Middle East policy

Donald Trump’s second-term cabinet appointments reflect his firm commitment to a hardline, pro-Israel stance and a strong “America First” policy. His key national security picks are staunch supporters of Israeli interests, many of whom hold controversial views on the Middle East. Figures like Mike Huckabee, Steven Witkoff, and Pete Hegseth will play central roles in advancing Trump’s foreign policy, which could lead to significant changes in how the US engages with its allies and adversaries in the region.

Key appointments

 Mike Huckabee: US Ambassador to Israel
A Baptist preacher and evangelical, Huckabee has long been unequivocal in his support for Israel, and his appointment will only strengthen US-Israel ties. His views on the Palestinian issue align with the hard-line elements of the Israeli government, including dismissing Palestinian identity as a “political tool to try and force land from Israel” and saying that “there is no such thing as a West Bank. It’s Judea and Samaria.” His appointment increases the likelihood that Israel will have official approval from the US for territorial expansion.

Steven Witkoff: Special Envoy to the Middle East
A real estate investor and close friend of Trump, Witkoff does not have any foreign policy or diplomatic experience. While it is not immediately clear what his role will be in relation to the Middle East, Witkoff has close connections with pro-Israel Jewish business interests in the US, and used these connections to garner substantial financial support for the Trump campaign. This suggests he will advocate for policies prioritising Israeli security and interests in future negotiations with regional players.

Pete Hegseth: Secretary of Defence
A vocal supporter of Israel and critic of Iran, Hegseth’s appointment signals that the US will take a more aggressive stance in the Middle East. He has previously called for US military escalation against Iran, and described the war in Gaza as a “fight that Israel needs to finish”. His appointment suggests heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran, as well as a continued strong alliance with Israel.s well as a continued strong alliance with Israel.

Mike Waltz: National Security Adviser
A former Green Beret with staunch pro-Israel views, Waltz supports Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, describing its controversial pager attack in Lebanon as “a masterful covert operation”. Waltz will be tasked with expanding the Abraham Accords and strengthening US-Saudi relations. Waltz recommended last month that a strike be carried out on Iran’s Kharg Island, suggesting he will maintain a tough stance towards Tehran and support Israeli operations against Iranian targets in the region.

Elise Stefanik: US Ambassador to the UN
Stefanik’s appointment signals continued US support for Israel at the UN. Known for opposing resolutions critical of Israel, Stefanik is expected to block international efforts that run contrary to Israeli interests, including any motion that would hamper the defunding of UNRWA..

What these appointments mean for US Middle East policy

Trump’s cabinet picks suggest that his second term will usher in a period of intensified support for Israel and a more hardline stance against Iran. Huckabee’s appointment as US Ambassador to Israel will pave the way for even closer ties between the US and Israel, potentially leading to formal US backing for the annexation of the West Bank and further territorial expansion by Israel. Meanwhile, Hegseth and Waltz are likely to push for a more aggressive approach towards Iran, including the possibility of military action and stronger economic sanctions.

Any efforts towards expanding the Abraham Accords by reaching out to Arab nations, with Witkoff in a negotiating role, are likely to be framed as support for Israeli priorities. With Stefanik’s strong stance at the UN and Huckabee’s evangelical view of Israel’s territorial claims, the US will be more outspoken in its defence of its main regional ally and vehemently oppose any resolutions to apply international pressure.

Turkey cuts ties with Israel

On Wednesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that Turkey has severed relations with Israel. Turkish Israeli relations have deteriorated in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel and the ensuing war on Gaza. Erdoğan emphasised that the announcement marked a definitive cutting of all official trade and diplomatic ties.

Regional and stakeholder impact

Turkey’s decision follows years of fraught relations with Israel, largely due to Erdoğan’s outspoken criticism of Israeli policies, especially regarding Palestine. Erdoğan has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza and has taken a leading role in international efforts to hold Israel accountable, including a push for an arms embargo against Israel at the UN.

Domestically, Erdoğan faced political pressure for not taking a stronger stand against Israel, especially after continued trade relations through third countries. This also comes at a time when Turkey is building diplomatic relations with allies that are also critics of Israel and its ongoing aggressions, notably Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan.

What’s next?

 Diplomatic hostility between Israel and Turkey will continue, with Erdoğan pledging to hold Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu accountable for his military’s actions in Gaza. Regionally, the move will open the door for stronger ties between Turkey and Iran, Saudi Arabia and other nations critical of Israeli policies. However, Turkey’s move could strain its relations with NATO, especially the US and its European allies, complicating its role in regional security issues like Syria.

Qatar’s government reshuffle

On November 12, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani announced a significant reshuffling of his cabinet, replacing six ministers and making changes in key government agencies. Notably, the Emir Sheikh Saud bin Abdulrahman Al Thani – previously head of the Amiri Diwan – was appointed Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence. New ministers were also appointed in the fields of commerce, education, health, social development and transport.

The reshuffle included the appointment of Khalfan bin Ali bin Khalfan Al Batty Al Kaabi as head of the State Security Agency, which had played a key role in mediating between Israel and Hamas. Qatar announced earlier this week that it had suspended its role as a mediator between Israel and Hamas until both parties “show their willingness” to negotiate.

Regional and stakeholder impact

 The reshuffle appears to be a response to both internal and external factors. Sheikh Saud’s replacement at the Amiri Diwan, where he had served since 2020, may indicate dissatisfaction with his management style. Sheikh Tamim appointed Abdullah bin Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khulaifi as chief of the Amiri Diwan, marking the first time that the Emir’s office has been led by someone outside the Al Thani family. Al Khulaifi was moving on from his role leading Qatar’s State Security Agency.

This reshuffle, coupled with the suspension of Qatar’s mediation role in the Israel-Hamas conflict, suggests a potential recalibration of Qatar’s foreign policy, particularly as they relate to the Palestinian issue. Following Trump’s election, Qatar may be wary of security risks related to its long-term hosting of Hamas leadership, viewed by Israel as a form of implicit support.

What’s next?

Internationally, Qatar’s decision to reassess its role as a mediator in the Gaza conflict reflects wariness about its position in the region’s geopolitical dynamics and suggests the emirate will seek to distance itself from positions that may lead to security vulnerabilities.  Domestically, the reshuffling signals a new phase of governance under Emir Tamim, with an eye toward reforming state institutions and increasing stability in preparation for future challenges.