MENA Strategic Bulletin

ICC issues arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Deif, accusing them of crimes against humanity and war crimes. The charges include the use of starvation as a method of warfare, as well as murder, persecution and other inhumane acts. Despite Israel’s challenges to the court’s jurisdiction over Palestine and its requests to halt the proceedings, the ICC reaffirmed its authority, citing territorial jurisdiction over Palestine and dismissing Israel’s appeal to delay the investigation.

Regional and stakeholder impact:

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has affirmed that all EU member states are obligated to uphold the ICC’s arrest warrants for Israeli leaders Netanyahu and Gallant. Several EU countries, including the Netherlands, Italy and France, have said they will enforce the decision by arresting those charged if they enter their respective territories. In the UK, the Labour Party has reversed the Conservative government’s stance, allowing the ICC’s decision to stand, though the new government has refused to be drawn on whether it will enforce the warrants. The Biden administration issued a statement saying that the US “fundamentally rejects” the ICC’s decision. This will likely hold during Trump’s presidency, further complicating the court’s legal efforts and its process of ensuring accountability.

The ICC’s ruling, alongside growing international calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, is likely to increase diplomatic polarisation over Israel’s military actions in the region. Other countries may look to follow the example of Turkey, which has already begun cutting diplomatic ties with Netanyahu’s government.

 What’s next?

The effectiveness of the ICC’s arrest warrants will depend on whether its member states take action to enforce them. It looks promising with EU member states in line with the warrant, however, it will also face its share of obstacles considering Israel’s strong alliances, notably with the US, which would challenge the court’s warrant and influence other countries. Israel’s allies will most likely oppose the court’s ruling, attempting to delegitimise the ICC and thereby undermining the impact of the warrants. As international pressure grows, the ICC’s decision will play a role in intensifying calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, validating demands for accountability and an end to the violence.

IAEA and Iran trade further blows in nuclear dispute

Diplomats gathered in Vienna on Thursday to discuss a censure resolution targeting Iran for its insufficient cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The motion, drafted by France, Germany and the United Kingdom, and backed by the US, criticises Tehran for failing to meet its nuclear obligations.

The move comes after a visit by IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi to Iran on November 13, when he urged Tehran to address long-standing concerns related to its nuclear programme. During the visit, Iran agreed to cap its stock of uranium enriched to 60% purity, a significant concession that Grossi described as a “concrete step in the right direction”.

However, the resolution argues that Iran has failed to cooperate with a long-running probe into past nuclear activity at three undeclared sites. Its demands include the Islamic Republic’s full IAEA cooperation, including the reinstatement of transparency measures suspended in 2021, and the installation of monitoring equipment at key sites.

Regional and stakeholder impact:

On Friday, Iran responded to the censure resolution by saying that it had started activating new advanced centrifuges which significantly increase its ability to enrich uranium. Although Iran’s foreign ministry insisted the activation of the centrifuges was intended “to protect the country’s interests and further develop the peaceful nuclear energy, in line with the growing national needs”, the move risks further inflaming tensions between Iran and the West.

Western powers have been increasingly concerned by Iran’s growing stockpile of enriched uranium and reduced cooperation with the IAEA. Since 2021, Iran has limited IAEA access, deactivated surveillance equipment and expanded its uranium enrichment. It now possesses more than four IAEA-defined “significant quantities” of uranium enriched to 60%, heightening fears of nuclear weapon development.

 What’s next?

In announcing its activation of advanced centrifuges, the foreign ministry maintained that Iran was “well-prepared for constructive engagement with relevant parties”. When taken together with President Masoud Pezeshkian’s previously stated desire to resolve the nuclear crisis and secure sanctions relief, this suggests a diplomatic path remains open.

However, this latest episode will have further deteriorated good will between Tehran and the West. Given US President-elect Trump’s track record of imposing sanctions against Iran and his impending return to office, a near-term resolution to the standoff on Tehran’s nuclear activities seems unlikely.

Lebanon ceasefire talks advance with US proposal

On Tuesday, Lebanon and Hezbollah agreed in principle to a US proposal for a ceasefire with Israel, marking the most serious attempt yet to end the ongoing conflict. Following this, White House envoy Amos Hochstein travelled to Beirut earlier this week to continue discussions. However, the Lebanese government and Hezbollah have outlined some conditions and amendments to the proposal. While Israel has not immediately responded, Hochstein travelled to Tel Aviv on Wednesday with the goal of finalising the agreement and securing a ceasefire.

Regional and stakeholder impact:

The US ceasefire proposal represents a significant step towards ending hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Lebanon’s proposed amendments indicate that significant obstacles remain before a final agreement can be reached. Among Lebanon’s key demands is an immediate withdrawal of Israeli troops following the declaration of a ceasefire. This would allow the Lebanese army to deploy in previously contested areas and enable displaced citizens to return to their homes. Israel, however, prefers a 60-day timeline for its withdrawal after the ceasefire is declared.

Hezbollah, too, has raised concerns regarding the ceasefire draft. Its leader, Naim Qassem, confirmed that the group had submitted its feedback on the proposal. He emphasised that the decision now rests with Israel, particularly with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and suggested that Hezbollah was prepared to continue fighting if a ceasefire is not achieved. The recent killing of Hezbollah’s media chief by Israeli forces has further fuelled calls for immediate amendments to the ceasefire terms.

What’s next?

The Biden administration is keen to secure a truce in Lebanon before President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January. Israel, having achieved many of its main objectives in Lebanon and weakened Hezbollah, may be inclined to support a ceasefire. Such an agreement would also facilitate the return of tens of thousands of evacuees from northern Israel, which would be a boon to an Israeli government accused of prioritising its military aims over the safety of its citizens.

However, Israel has made it clear that any ceasefire agreement must include provisions to maintain its “freedom to act” in case of violations. Lebanon, on the other hand, has rejected the inclusion of such language, insisting that Israel should not have the ability to take military action on Lebanese soil without prior approval. As both sides continue to negotiate, the situation remains tense, and the future of the ceasefire remains uncertain.
 

China facilitates stronger ties between Saudi and Iran

On Tuesday, Riyadh hosted the second meeting of the Saudi-Chinese-Iranian Joint Tripartite Committee, convened to further the implementation of the Beijing Agreement, signed in March 2023 to end a long-running diplomatic standoff between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The discussions centred on reinforcing the commitments of the agreement, focusing on fostering stronger bilateral relations between Riyadh and Tehran.

Regional and stakeholder impact:

 The meeting emphasised China’s critical role in facilitating cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, suggesting the emergence of the People’s Republic as a diplomatic player in the region. The bilateral progress made in several areas, including the establishment of the Saudi-Iranian Joint Media Committee and discussions on finalising a double taxation agreement, suggests that relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran are continuing to improve.

With the three countries issuing statements calling for an immediate halt to Israeli aggression in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as advocating for a political resolution to the conflict in Yemen, the meeting serves key strategic objectives for Tehran and Riyadh. Improved relations will simultaneously decrease the likelihood of security threats to the Kingdom from the Iranian-backed Houthis while ensuring Iran does not become isolated as tensions continue with Israel and the US.

What’s next?

Moving forward, the focus will be on formalising agreements, such as the double taxation avoidance pact, and expanding diplomatic and economic collaboration. Regionally, the China-backed alliance between Iran and Saudi can be a force for stability, with the government in Riyadh keen to stay on track for Vision 2030 and Iran possibly being open to tempering Houthi aggression in exchange for economic and strategic advantages.