MENA Strategic Bulletin

Developments in Syria

On November 27,  Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) opposition forces reignited the flames of Syria’s long-standing civil war by launching a surprise offensive that led to the seizure of Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city and a key economic hub. This was followed by advances into Hama on December 5, forcing the Syrian army into retreat. The swift fall of Aleppo, with government forces abandoning their positions without resistance, exposed the systemic vulnerabilities of Assad’s regime, which has yet to recover from the civil war.

At the same time, the conditions for this conflict have been brewing for many years. For 12 years, the international community’s primary response to Syria’s crisis has been economic sanctions. Far from supporting political reform or democracy-building, these have crippled the local economy and left millions of Syrians trapped in cycles of despair, creating fertile ground for the current instability.

Regional and stakeholder impact

Assad’s regime is undeniably suffering under the weight of its isolation and reliance on waning allies. Without consistent support from Iran, Hezbollah and Russia – whose attention is diverted to their own crises – Assad faces the possibility of being overthrown. This would not only strip Iran of a vital ally but would also expose Tehran’s inability to protect its proxies, potentially weakening its influence across the region and destabilising Hezbollah, which depends on Syria for weaponry supply.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s calculated support of the opposition reveals a broader geopolitical agenda. Though publicly denying involvement, Ankara is clearly leveraging this conflict to assert its influence, either to pressure Assad into concessions or for a leadership change in its favour.

Israel stands to gain strategically in the short term from a weakened Iran and disrupted arms flows to Hezbollah, but any long-term empowerment of Salafi extremists in Syria would only increase its security concerns. Netanyahu’s government will be closely following the progress of the rebel groups, especially if further advances raise the potential of their prolonged presence near the Golan Heights and Israel’s eastern border.

What’s next?

Iran will try to militarily support efforts to counter the rebel advances and seek diplomatic solutions, as seen by the Iranian FM’s visit to Turkey on December 2 to address the situation, but its limited resources and vulnerability to Israeli strikes constrain its actions.

Meanwhile, Assad is unlikely to surrender easily, ensuring a long, brutal struggle with immense humanitarian costs. At the same time, his forces are in no position to counter the opposition effectively. Demoralised and underfunded, the Syrian army face opposition groups like HTS that are far more motivated, better equipped and proficient in modern tactics, including the use of drones.

Following the opposition’s capture of Aleppo, over 48,500 people have been displaced in Idleb and Aleppo, more than half of them children. Currently, 16.7 million Syrians rely on humanitarian aid for survival. Another wave of conflict risks further mass displacement and increasing dependence on aid. Meanwhile, the international community and key organisations like UNICEF and UNHCR are already facing severe funding shortages, threatening their capacity to address the escalating crisis.

Even if Assad’s regime collapses, peace is a distant prospect. A fractured Syria would unleash a Pandora’s box of factional infighting, with extremist and nationalist groups vying for control, plunging the nation into even greater chaos.

France and Saudi Arabia sign strategic defence deal

President Emmanuel Macron completed the first French state visit to Saudi Arabia since 2006 on Wednesday, marking a significant moment in the growing alignment between the two nations.

At the heart of the discussions was a strategic defence agreement, which includes the “will to move forward” on the sale of French-made Rafale fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. Macron also secured deals for major waste management and solar projects in the Kingdom, among others. The president also used the occasion to call for new elections in Lebanon as part of France’s ongoing mediation role in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in its former protectorate.

Regional and stakeholder impact

Macron’s visit will solidify Saudi–French relations, emphasising their status as key business partners in the context of their respective 2030 visions. France has positioned itself as a key partner in helping the kingdom diversify its economy, focusing on the high-tech, renewable energy and defence sectors.

The proposed sale of Rafale jets has sparked concerns, however, particularly considering Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Yemen conflict and allegations of war crimes. Despite this, France appears determined to uphold its defence market position and push for the sale of 50 French-made Rafale jets. This comes amid possibilities of Germany lifting its ban on arms sales to nations involved in the Yemen conflict, which would bring the Eurofighter Typhoon jets back into the market amid competition from American Boeing F-15s.

Similarly, questions will be raised about Saudi’s growing ties with China. As the kingdom seeks greater defence autonomy, its shift towards Chinese technology – particularly software – may have security implications for France and its Western allies.

What’s next?

While the strategic partnership between France and Saudi Arabia offers mutual benefits in the realm of business, closer diplomatic and defence ties will raise questions that require deft navigation from the French side. It will look to capitalise on defence deals and promote its status as a peacekeeper in the region while minimising concerns surrounding Saudi-China relations and Saudi’s military activities. Ultimately, the success of this partnership will depend on both nations carefully balancing their ambitions in defence, technology and regional politics.

Ceasefire violations and Israeli actions in Lebanon

The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement of November 27, brokered by the US and France, was supposed to mark the end of a 13-month conflict that started as a cross-border exchange and evolved into an Israeli ground invasion. Touted as a much-needed respite for the Lebanese civilian population and a pathway toward stability, a series of Israeli actions have instead brought the agreement into question.

Within hours of the ceasefire’s implementation, members of the Israeli Defence Forces opened fire on vehicles carrying returning Lebanese civilians. This marked the beginning of a series of ceasefire violations, with Israel launching airstrikes and advancing its ground forces into Lebanese territory, defying the agreed-upon terms of withdrawal. Reports from the UN’s peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) have estimated that Israel had violated the ceasefire more than 100 times by December 2.

Regional and stakeholder impact

Israel’s post-ceasefire actions represent a more assertive military strategy, one that is not merely aimed at deterring Hezbollah but at reshaping the entire regional power dynamic. This was Israel’s aim after the 2006 war, but it lacked the leverage to achieve it. Having dismantled Hezbollah’s command structure and by now repeatedly violating the ceasefire, Israel is seizing the opportunity to reinforce its dominance and send a message of diplomatic impunity.

For Hezbollah, the situation is rapidly deteriorating. The group struggles to withstand Israel’s overwhelming military force and faces growing internal pressure. Iran, now prioritising its own security and regional interests, is unlikely to be able to rearm Hezbollah or offer meaningful support. The balance of power has shifted decisively in Israel’s favour, and Hezbollah finds itself facing not only mounting casualties but also growing frustration within its ranks. Meanwhile, Lebanon is plunged into a worsening humanitarian crisis.

 What’s next?

The future of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire remains uncertain, with Israeli actions bringing its legitimacy under increased scrutiny. The US looks likely to insist on the ceasefire’s validity, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken asserting in a recent NATO meeting that any violations are being addressed through “established mechanisms”.

Hezbollah, for its part, will be reliant on diplomatic interventions against Israel to prevent its position from weakening further. Its resources are stretched to the maximum in the wake of a brutal war and in the context of a rapidly evolving situation in Syria. Should the Assad regime in Syria fail, the group will lose a key part of its weapons supply route, further isolating the group. Meanwhile, Israel’s confidence in its intelligence and military advantage will continue to grow.