MENA Strategic Bulletin

US–Russia discuss Ukraine in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as a crucial mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war, hosting high-stakes diplomatic talks in Riyadh between senior US and Russian officials. This marks the first official dialogue between the two powers in nearly two years, signalling a potentially major shift in diplomatic relations. The discussions, led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, focused on the possibility of ending the war and addressing economic concerns. While no formal agreement was reached, the talks underscore Saudi Arabia’s growing role in global conflict resolution at a time when they are also positioning themselves to play a key role in the future of Gaza.

Regional and stakeholder impact

The meeting brought together some of the most influential figures shaping the geopolitical landscape. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a vocal critic of prolonged US involvement in Ukraine, has consistently opposed additional military aid packages, arguing that American resources should be focused on countering China. His participation signals a shift in US policy, with Washington now exploring alternatives to indefinite military support. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz reinforced this approach, advocating for a permanent resolution while raising controversial demands that Ukraine share its mineral wealth, including rare earths and energy resources, as part of any long-term agreement with the US.

On the Russian side, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and top Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov led the talks, reiterating Moscow’s stance that it has not targeted Ukrainian civilian infrastructure – despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. However, the presence of Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s Direct Investment Fund, highlights the economic dimensions of these negotiations. Russia, facing steep inflation and rising war costs, appears eager to secure investment partnerships, including potential collaboration with Saudi Arabia in the Arctic region. Notably, Dmitriev worked closely with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff in a recent US-Russia prisoner exchange, suggesting deeper backchannel diplomacy between the parties.

A notable absence from the talks was Ukraine itself. Despite hosting a high-level meeting on the war, Saudi Arabia did not include Ukrainian representatives, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky to assert that no decisions would be made “behind our backs”. The exclusion of Ukraine raises questions about the legitimacy and intent of these negotiations, as any viable resolution will ultimately require Kyiv’s participation. Saudi Arabia’s hosting of the discussions without Ukraine suggests a broader strategy of positioning itself as a power broker, but it remains to be seen whether this approach will be accepted by all key stakeholders.

Beyond Ukraine, Saudi officials engaged with Rubio on the ongoing Gaza ceasefire negotiations, reaffirming their rejection of Trump’s widely condemned proposal to forcibly displace Palestinians. With Saudi Arabia already facilitating prisoner exchanges and economic discussions between Russia and the US, could it now emerge as a key broker in the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal? As Riyadh’s international stature grows, its influence in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

What’s next?

With the Riyadh talks opening a rare diplomatic channel between the US and Russia, the coming weeks will determine whether these discussions lead to substantive progress or remain a symbolic gesture. Meanwhile, as a powerful potential ally to both the US and Israel, Saudi Arabia’s opposition to Trump’s Gaza plan is likely to play a critical role in the upcoming phases of ceasefire negotiations. Whether Riyadh can turn diplomatic dialogue into actionable peace agreements in the Ukraine or Gaza remains to be seen, but its growing leverage on the world stage is undeniable.

Spain and Egypt upgrade relations to strategic partnership

President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi met with His Majesty King Felipe VI of Spain during his official visit to Madrid. His Majesty emphasised Spain’s deep appreciation for the historical ties that unite both nations. King Felipe VI expressed his hope that the visit would further enhance bilateral cooperation across multiple sectors, acknowledging Egypt’s pivotal role in fostering stability and security in the Middle East. In response, President Al Sisi reaffirmed Egypt’s commitment to strengthening its partnership with Spain, highlighting the importance of economic collaboration, as well as political coordination.

Gaza was a central topic of discussion, with both nations strongly condemning any forced displacement of its people. They rejected President Trump’s Gaza plan and reaffirmed their commitment to advocating for an immediate ceasefire, the delivery of humanitarian aid and the implementation of a two-state solution, reaffirming it as the only viable path to lasting peace.

The visit culminated with the leaders formally elevating their relationship to that of a strategic partnership through a joint declaration. They also signed a declaration on regional affairs and four memoranda of understanding covering economic, commercial, industrial and technical cooperation, with a particular focus on infrastructure, transport, tourism and circular migration.

Regional and stakeholder impact

This strategic alignment will be crucial for engaging Western allies in opposing Trump’s proposal and enabling Egypt to propose alternative solutions for post-war Gaza.

Egypt remains one of the primary recipients of Spanish official financing, especially in the railway sector, supported through the Business Internationalisation Fund (FIEM) and the Spanish Export Credit Agency (CESCE). Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez highlighted the potential for deepening business and economic cooperation in key sectors such as renewable energy, water management, security and defence. This alignment will support Egypt’s economic diversification and transition toward a more sustainable, renewable energy-driven future.

Beyond economic collaboration, both leaders addressed pressing regional concerns, with a particular emphasis on the crisis in Gaza. Prime Minister Sánchez reiterated Spain’s unwavering support for a two-state solution and firmly opposed any forced displacement of Palestinians. He declared, “Gaza belongs to the Palestinians”, rejecting proposals that contravene international law and UN resolutions.

Sánchez also underscored the destabilizing effects such a proposal would have on both regional and global levels. Spain’s backing of the Arab League’s upcoming proposal in Cairo for Gaza’s reconstruction strengthens Egypt’s position in the forthcoming Riyadh summit this weekend. With Spain’s support, Egypt will have additional diplomatic leverage in rejecting Trump’s proposal, signalling a broader consensus among Arab and European nations. Spain’s strong stance could also encourage other EU members to take a more active role in rebuilding Gaza while reaffirming their commitment to international law and Palestinian rights.

What’s next?

Looking ahead, both nations will continue to engage in high-level discussions to translate these commitments into concrete actions. The forthcoming Arab League meeting in Cairo on March 4 will be a crucial platform for furthering the dialogue on Gaza’s reconstruction and broader regional stability. Egypt must align its efforts with both regional and international allies to secure a comprehensive backed resolution on Gaza.

Hamas commits to hostage releases as phase one deadline looms

As part of the ongoing ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Hamas this week released four bodies on Thursday 20 February, and will release six living hostages on Saturday. These transfers look set to sustain the ceasefire for the time being, following weeks of heightened tensions surrounding Israeli ceasefire violations and US President Donald Trump’s threats towards Gaza.

While negotiations on the next steps – including a potential permanent resolution to the conflict – have yet to begin, Hamas has signalled its willingness to move forward with talks for the second phase of the agreement. However, the truce remains fragile, with Israel reportedly violating the ceasefire 266 times, killing least 132 Palestinians. The current phase of the ceasefire is set to expire on March 1.

Regional and stakeholder impact

The ceasefire’s implementation continues to test the commitments of both parties and its mediators. Egypt, Qatar and the US remain central to efforts to maintain the agreement and ensure the second phase begins on March 1.

In Israel, far-right members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet have already indicated that they are ready to continue the military offensive on Gaza, while US President Donald Trump has pushed for the forced displacement of Palestinians.

Regional actors, including Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, must navigate the delicate balance of appeasing the US while pushing for a sustainable political resolution for the Palestinians. The fate of the truce now hinges on whether key stakeholders can prevent renewed escalation and get both sides to commit to the next phase of the agreement.

What’s next?

With the ceasefire’s first phase nearing its expiration date, the coming days will be pivotal. The release of captives and the return of remains may serve as confidence-building measures, but without immediate negotiations on a permanent resolution, the risk of renewed conflict looms large.

Egypt, Qatar and the US must work swiftly to secure an extension of the truce and initiate discussions on the next steps. Regional diplomacy will be tested as leaders navigate political pressures from all sides, particularly amid calls for military escalation from hardliners in Israel.

As the March 1 deadline approaches, the international community must also remain engaged to prevent further bloodshed and push for a resolution that ensures long-term stability for both Israelis and Palestinians.