Must Read: Aftermath of Haniyeh’s killing

On July 31, 2024, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s political bureau, was killed in a targeted assassination in Tehran. Although Israel has not officially acknowledged responsibility for the killing, it is consistent with a pattern of Israeli assassinations of Palestinian political figures. Haniyeh’s death has also prompted speculation about the future direction of Hamas under the leadership of Yahya Sinwar and the implications for the movement’s operational status.  

Sinwar named as political leader of Hamas

The appointment of Yahya Sinwar as the new political leader of Hamas is significant. Sinwar is known as a hardliner, instrumental in Hamas’s military operations and proponent of a more confrontational approach to Israel. His elevation to the top political position suggests that Hamas may adopt a more aggressive stance in the aftermath of Haniyeh’s killing. On Wednesday, Israel responded to Sinwar’s appointment by vowing to have him assassinated.  

Stakeholder and regional impact:  The killing of Haniyeh sparked widespread protests and condemnation from different countries around the world, including Russia, China and Turkey. Tehran condemned the assassination and vowed to retaliate against Israel.  

What’s next? Iran’s threats against Israel introduce additional uncertainty to the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza. The US, Qatar and Egypt have urged both Hamas and Israel to participate in ceasefire discussions set for August 15. Regional officials expressed surprise at White House spokesman John Kirby’s assertion that a ceasefire agreement in Gaza is closer than ever. The situation is unclear as the region prepares for a potential Iranian offensive against Israel, which would further postpone, if not completely obstruct, any prospective ceasefire arrangement.  

Other key developments: Geopolitics

 Hezbollah drone attack against Israel

Following the assassination of Haniyeh, Hezbollah has escalated tensions by launching drone attacks against Israel on the August 5. This move signifies a substantial increase in regional volatility. Hezbollah’s actions are seen as a demonstration of Iranian-backed support and a direct challenge to Israeli security amid heightened Iran-Israel tensions. The attacks exacerbate the strained relationship between Lebanon and Israel, potentially dragging Lebanon further into the regional conflict and impacting Lebanese stability. 

Stakeholder impact: We expect increased security concerns to lead to volatility in regional financial markets and potential disruptions in trade. The Israeli government is likely to enhance its military response and security measures along its northern border. The call from international governments for their citizens to leave Lebanon shows concern about rising insecurity in Lebanon.  

What’s next? Further drone attacks or military exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah are likely, potentially leading to a broader conflict that draws in other regional players such as Iran – who is yet to directly respond to Haniyeh’s killing. Trade routes could also be affected, with the Houthis challenging Israel on multiple fronts. The upcoming US presidential elections are also a key factor: the Biden administration is pushing hard for a ceasefire as a final diplomatic win before November 5.  

US personnel attack at Al Asad airbase in Iraq

US personnel at Al Asad airbase in Iraq were recently targeted in an assault involving rockets. The attack resulted in five casualties and damage to the base infrastructure. The assault undermines Iraq’s security situation, straining relations between the Iraqi government and both local militias and international forces. It could also affect Iraq’s ongoing efforts to stabilise and rebuild. 

Stakeholder impact: This attack could add to tensions between the US and Iran, given Iran’s historical support for various Iraqi militia groups and current regional dynamics. The US is likely to reassess its military presence and security protocols in Iraq. This attack may also prompt a stronger military response and influence US policy in the region. 

What’s next? Expect a ramp-up in security at Al Asad airbase and other US facilities in Iraq, along with potential military retaliations or adjustments to operational strategies. Concerted diplomatic efforts may be initiated to address the tensions between the US and Iran, and to manage the security situation in Iraq. 

Turkey joins genocide case against Israel at the ICJ

Turkey has formally joined the ongoing International Court of Justice (ICJ) case accusing Israel of genocide, after months of delays. This development marks a significant escalation in the legal and diplomatic pressure on Israel and its ongoing war in Gaza. 

Stakeholder impact: Turkey’s involvement in the ICJ case is likely to further strain its already tense relations with Israel, which could lead to a deterioration in bilateral ties. The case could influence other regional players’ positions on Israel, increasing support for Palestinian claims and South Africa’s case against Tel Aviv. 

What’s next? The ICJ case will progress, with Turkey’s involvement expected to intensify legal scrutiny and diplomatic negotiations behind the scenes. As the most significant regional player to join the case, Turkey’s involvement is likely to spark widespread media coverage and public debate, influencing international opinion and potentially affecting policy decisions related to the Israel-Palestine conflict. 

Egypt’s inflation slows to 25.7% in July

Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation dropped to 25.7% in July from 27.5% in June. Month-on-month, prices fell by 0.4%, improving from a 1.6% decline in June. Despite a slight decrease, food prices remain 28.5% higher than a year ago. The government is actively managing its food imports and subsidies to address economic challenges, and the latest data signals a positive step towards increased stability in Egypt’s economy. 

Stakeholder impact:  The inflation decrease offers some relief amid ongoing economic reforms under an IMF support package. The government’s subsidy adjustments and price increases are aimed at stabilising the economy and addressing a budget deficit. The reduction in inflation will provide modest relief, though high food prices persist. Subsidy increases and price hikes are intended to support households amid rising costs. Egypt’s large-scale imports of wheat and sunflower oil reflect efforts to manage food security and capitalise on lower global prices, influencing global grain and oil markets. 

What’s next? Inflation trends will be monitored closely as Egypt continues its economic reforms and adjusts domestic prices. Successful procurement of wheat and oil at lower prices may help ease inflationary pressures and stabilise the economy. Ongoing fiscal and subsidy adjustments will be crucial in managing the economic impact and public response. Future price adjustments and subsidy policies will continue to affect consumer purchasing power and economic stability.