Geopolitics 

Israel ends 10-day West Bank operation

The Israeli army has withdrawn from the northern West Bank following a 10-day military operation that left 36 people dead. The withdrawal of troops on September 6 ended one of the army’s deadliest raids on the West Bank in decades. Several cities were targeted, including Jenin and Tulkarem, as well as the Al Faraa refugee camp. The military claimed the campaign was part of a counterterrorism effort.

Stakeholder and Regional Impact: Violence has intensified across the West Bank since the outbreak of the Gaza war on October 7 last year, resulting in 661 Palestinian deaths caused by Israeli forces or settlers and 23 Israeli deaths from Palestinian attacks. The Israeli military left Jenin in ruins, with extensive infrastructure damage and a high casualty rate. The operation has intensified the already dire humanitarian situation facing Palestinians in the West Bank. Israel is expected to face international pushback for this operation, especially considering the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in July that the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories, including Gaza and the West Bank, is unlawful.

What’s Next? Israeli officials have indicated that military operations in the West Bank will continue, and further escalations are likely, particularly given the broader conflict with Hamas. These actions could further hinder efforts towards a ceasefire in Gaza. Meanwhile, the ICJ’s ruling is expected to become a key tool for the international community to apply diplomatic pressure on Israel.

Al Sisi’s Turkey visit opens door to a “new phase” in Egypt-Turkey relations

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi met in Ankara on September 4 to discuss the Gaza conflict and taking steps to mend their historically strained relations. This was the first such presidential visit in 12 years, marking a significant moment in the restoration of diplomatic ties that began to deteriorate in 2013 when Al Sisi ousted Mohamed Morsi, a Turkish ally. Relations have improved since 2020, with Erdoğan’s February visit to Egypt further solidifying efforts to rebuild the relationship.

Stakeholder and regional impact: Renewed dialogue between Turkey and Egypt has significant implications for regional diplomacy, energy cooperation and security. The two countries signed 18 memoranda of understanding on cooperation in various sectors such as energy, defence, tourism, and finance. Both nations emphasised their shared stance on the Palestinian issue, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and addressing violence in the West Bank. Turkey, which has sent aid to Egypt for Palestinians, praised Egypt’s humanitarian and mediation efforts. They also discussed their ongoing differences regarding Libya, agreeing on the importance of resolving the conflict and pushing for elections.

What’s Next? Both nations intend to deepen cooperation on trade and energy, with Erdoğan highlighting natural gas and nuclear energy as key areas for collaboration. The two presidents also set a target to boost bilateral trade from $5bn to $15bn over the next five years. Their shared regional goals, particularly concerning Gaza, suggest continued diplomatic efforts to address the Palestinian crisis, as well as further cooperation in stabilising Libya through elections and the removal of foreign forces and militias.

Humanitarian

First phase of Gaza polio vaccination drive completed

From September 1 to 3, the first phase of a polio vaccination campaign in central Gaza achieved significant success, vaccinating over 187,000 children under ten with the novel oral polio vaccine type 2 (nOPV2). The campaign, carried out by the Palestinian Ministry of Health in collaboration with the World Health Organisation (WHO), among other organisations, exceeded the initial target of 157,000 due to increased population movement and expanded coverage.

The campaign involved 513 teams and over 2,180 health and community outreach workers, who provided vaccinations at 143 fixed sites and through mobile teams who helped reach hard-to-access areas. The vaccination drive comes in response to the detection of the first polio case in Gaza in 25 years, emerging amid a collapsed health system and widespread hospital damage due to the ongoing conflict.

The vaccination campaign is being implemented despite ongoing disruption throughout Gaza. Bombing and targeting have continued, complicating vaccination efforts. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) reported that 160,000 children had received the vaccine in southern Gaza on September 5, the first day of the second stage of the campaign, benefiting from limited pauses in fighting between Israeli and Hamas forces. The WHO has indicated that at least 90% vaccination coverage during each round of the campaign is needed to halt the outbreak.

What’s Next? The polio vaccination campaign is set to move to northern Gaza from September 9 to 11, targeting approximately 150,000 children. This phase follows the completion of the ongoing second round in southern Gaza, scheduled from September 5 to 8, which aims to vaccinate around 340,000 children. Despite the challenging conditions, including ongoing bombings and a collapsed health system, efforts will continue to ensure that every eligible child receives their vaccine. The WHO  has emphasised the need for a second round of vaccination four weeks after the first, while international partners will work to maintain momentum and put pressure on Israel to ensure the facilitation of access and coverage.

UN calls for peacekeeping force in Sudan

A UN fact-finding mission has recently highlighted severe atrocities committed during the ongoing conflict in Sudan, which began in April of last year. The war, initially confined to Khartoum, has now expanded to 14 of the country’s 18 states. The mission has reported widespread ethnic killings, sexual slavery and the recruitment of child soldiers, with over 400 rapes documented in the first year of the conflict. The mission, created by the UN Human Rights Council in October 2023, is calling for an expansion of the existing UN arms embargo and the possibility of deploying a UN-mandated peacekeeping force.

Regional and Stakeholder Impact: The war has led to severe humanitarian crises in Sudan, including worsening famine, mass displacement and disease. The conflict has inflicted devastating psychological trauma, particularly on children. Despite attempts to engage Sudanese authorities, the mission has received no response, although the RSF expressed a willingness to cooperate. US-led mediation efforts in Switzerland last month secured some guarantees for improved humanitarian access, but progress has been hampered by the Sudanese army’s absence from the talks. The situation has garnered significant international concern, with Western countries, including Britain, poised to advocate for the renewal of the mission at an upcoming meeting.

What’s Next? The UN mission’s report is set to be discussed this month, with a push from Western nations for its continuation. However, Sudan is likely to oppose the renewal, arguing that the conflict is an internal matter. There is also potential for further international action, including the expansion of the UN arms embargo and the establishment of a peacekeeping force to address the escalating violence and humanitarian crisis. The international community will need to navigate Sudan’s resistance and work to ensure humanitarian aid reaches those in need amid the ongoing conflict.