Geopolitics

A week of dramatic escalation between Israel and Hezbollah

Attacks between Hezbollah and Israel have intensified dramatically since last week’s targeted explosions, which weaponised Hezbollah communications devices to kill at least 39 people and cause thousands of injuries. In response, Hezbollah launched a substantial barrage of rockets into northern Israel on September 20. This marked the beginning of a violent exchange that has led to more than 700 deaths, making it the deadliest escalation since the 2006 war.

Israeli airstrikes have mostly targeted strategic Hezbollah positions across southern Lebanon, but strikes have also been carried out on the suburbs of Beirut and Baalbek and the Beqaa Valley in eastern Lebanon. The UN reports that over 90,000 people have been displaced within Lebanon in the last 72 hours due to the ongoing violence.

Regional and stakeholder impact:

The ramifications of this conflict extend well beyond Lebanon’s borders. Iran, a key ally of Hezbollah, has been instrumental in providing support to the militant group, complicating the geopolitical landscape. Amid rising concerns of a potential all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, the US, France and other allies have called for a 21-day ceasefire to facilitate diplomatic negotiations. An emergency meeting of the UN Security Council has been convened to explore options for de-escalation.

In response to the crisis, countries are taking steps to prepare for the potential fallout. The UK has deployed approximately 700 troops to Cyprus to assist in anticipated evacuations of its citizens from Lebanon. Additionally, the US has announced the deployment of “a small number of US military personnel” to the Middle East, bolstering its presence. This military build-up underscores the gravity of the situation, as both Israel and Hezbollah have shown reluctance to back down, each warning of continued military responses.

What’s next?

The situation remains precarious, particularly as Israel has firmly rejected ceasefire proposals. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has said that his far-right party Jewish Power would withdraw from government, destabilising the ruling coalition, should a permanent ceasefire be reached in Lebanon. Military leadership in Israel is suggesting an expansion of operations against Hezbollah, with a possible ground invasion to secure its northern border. However, concerns about Israel’s ability to sustain a prolonged conflict are growing, especially given the strain on military resources due to the ongoing war in Gaza.

Adding to the tension, reports indicate that a Houthi missile targeting Israel was intercepted on September 27, suggesting that the conflict may attract further involvement from regional proxies. The US continues to support Israel while advocating for diplomatic solutions to avoid a broader war. As both sides brace for potential escalations, the evolving situation carries significant implications for regional stability.

UAE and US deepen military cooperation with strategic designation

President Joe Biden officially designated the UAE as a “major defence partner” following a visit by President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to Washington DC. This announcement solidifies a strategic relationship between the two nations at a time of instability in the Middle East. Biden underlined the strategic importance of the UAE, stating that the UAE has been a crucial ally in advancing peace and security in the Gulf region.

The designation grants the UAE enhanced access to advanced US defence technology and fosters deeper military cooperation amid rising geopolitical tensions. It strengthens the UAE’s position as a key player and mediator in the region and reaffirms the US’s commitment to its Gulf allies.

Regional and stakeholder impact:

Aligning more closely with the US may heighten tensions with Iran, as the UAE supports American security objectives. For Israel, this visit highlights the UAE’s growing role in Arab-Israeli normalization, and it contrasts starkly with the current Saudi stance. The UAE’s move closer to the US could both complement and challenge Saudi leadership in the region.

Economically, the US and UAE are deeply intertwined, with bilateral trade exceeding $31bn last year. The UAE’s investments in the US, notably through the Mubadala Investment Company, have directed over $100 bn into various sectors, creating substantial opportunities for American firms. This includes collaboration in technology, renewable energy and infrastructure, highlighting a shared interest in innovative ventures.

What’s next?

Moving forward, the US and the UAE are likely to deepen military integration, potentially involving intelligence sharing. This partnership aims to counter Iran’s influence and support ongoing normalization efforts in the region. As the UAE strengthens its global position, its stance on the Palestinian issue may have greater influence on US policy moving forward. Overall, the designation not only solidifies US-UAE relations but also reflects a strategic shift towards building robust defence partnerships to address the evolving security landscape in the Middle East.

Qatar becomes the first Arab state to join US visa waiver programme

The US has officially included Qatar in its Visa Waiver Program (VWP), making it the first Arab nation and only the second Muslim-majority country, after Brunei, to achieve this status. The US Department of Homeland Security confirmed that Qatar met the stringent security criteria required to join the programme, which allows for visa-free travel for up to 90 days. This decision is seen as a significant step in strengthening the strategic partnership between the two nations, opening the door for increased military collaboration, trade and investments.

Regional and stakeholder impact:

Qatar’s inclusion in the VWP is not just a diplomatic achievement but also an economic and strategic one. The country boasts a GDP per capita of $87,661, significantly higher than the US average, demonstrating its economic power in the region. As a crucial US ally in the Middle East, Qatar hosts the largest US military base in the region, Al Udeid, which houses approximately 10,000 US troops. This base serves as the forward operating headquarters for Centcom, making Qatar indispensable to US military engagement in the region. The extension of the US military’s stay at al-Udeid for another 10 years underlines the strong ties between the two nations. However, Qatar’s relations with other Gulf neighbours, like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, remain complex, particularly due to its ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.

What’s next?

With Qatar now a member of the VWP, there is potential for other Gulf nations to follow suit. US officials have expressed openness to extending the programme to other Arab nations, which could further enhance regional travel and economic partnerships. Despite Qatar’s strengthened ties with the US, it faces ongoing scrutiny, particularly in the context of its mediating role in the ongoing Gaza war. For the Biden administration, this agreement could bolster its standing among voters who prioritise stronger foreign relations with Arab nations amid criticism regarding the administration’s unequivocal support for Israel during its war on Gaza and escalations with Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia announces new global coalition to establish Palestinian state

Saudi Arabia has launched a new global initiative aimed at securing a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after decades of unsuccessful international efforts. The initiative, called the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution, was announced by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud at a meeting with the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and Norway. Prince Faisal emphasised the need for a collective push to achieve peace, with the establishment of an independent Palestinian state being the foremost goal. The initiative will see its first meetings take place in Riyadh, with follow-up sessions planned in both Riyadh and Brussels.

Regional and stakeholder impact:

The announcement of this initiative comes at a time of heightened tension in the Middle East, as Israel continues its bombardment of Gaza, escalates in Lebanon, and makes incursions in the West Bank. Saudi Arabia has consistently maintained that it will not normalise relations with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital. This position remains firm, despite growing international pressure. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reiterated this stance officially last week.

The ongoing war has intensified the urgency of the need for diplomatic solutions, and Saudi Arabia’s new initiative seeks to rally Arab and European support for this effort.

What’s next?

The success of this initiative will depend on international cooperation in the effort of pressuring Israel into reconsidering its stance on the two-state solution. The overwhelming majority of Israel’s Knesset and the ruling government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have shown little interest in negotiating for a Palestinian state. Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia’s firm diplomatic stance and its leadership role in the Arab world could further galvanise regional and global efforts.

Follow-up meetings in Riyadh and Brussels are expected to focus on shaping a viable plan that can bring about concrete results, starting with an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian aid for Gaza. However, the long-term goal remains the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, a condition that Saudi Arabia has made clear must be met before any normalisation of ties with Israel.