MENA Strategic Bulletin – Syria unveils Suwayda roadmap; Israel advances in Gaza City

By Alice Gower and Amy Stapleton

Syria: Damascus unveils Suwayda roadmap as US debates Caesar Act; security talks with Israel advance

On Tuesday, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani unveiled a seven-point roadmap to address the Suwayda crisis after talks in Damascus with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi and US Special Envoy Tom Barrack. The plan outlines measures to restore essential services, ensure humanitarian access, deploy local security forces, compensate victims, facilitate the return of displaced persons, clarify the fate of the missing, and initiate an inclusive reconciliation process. It builds on a fragile but holding ceasefire in the south.

Meanwhile, in Washington, lawmakers are divided over the future of the 2019 Caesar Civilian Protection Act, which imposes sanctions on Syria over human rights abuses. The Senate has moved to repeal the Act by inserting a clause in the 2026 National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA), which incorporates the Caesar Act. However, the House rejected a similar amendment last week. The next fortnight will prove critical as both chambers seek to reconcile their versions of the NDAA.

Separately, Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa said this week that ongoing security negotiations with Israel are a “necessity,” and could produce results “in the coming days.” He emphasised that any accord must respect Syria’s airspace and territorial integrity and would likely involve UN oversight. Normalisation is not yet on the agenda.

Regional and stakeholder impact

Damascus hopes progress in Suwayda will reassure Washington that it can manage sectarian and humanitarian challenges responsibly, influencing the Caesar debate. The legislation continues to deter foreign investment and humanitarian engagement, making its repeal or reform central to Syria’s post-conflict trajectory.

Some US officials are advocating for modernised, human-rights-based sanctions, while others are pushing for full repeal to support Syria’s reconstruction and counter Iranian and Russian influence. Opponents counter that al-Sharaa – formerly a US-designated terrorist – has yet to prove his commitment to inclusive governance and minority rights. Therefore, implementation of the Suwayda plan will be watched very closely in DC.

Washington is also mediating security-focused talks between Israel and Syria. Israel, having declared the 1974 disengagement accord void after Assad’s ouster, has escalated ground incursions and air strikes against Syrian targets, and now seeks a no-fly zone southwest of Damascus and retention of Mount Hermon in return for withdrawing from other areas. Damascus wants a deal akin to 1974, but al-Sharaa insists it is premature to discuss the Golan Heights.

What’s next

Some relief from sanctions expected: Washington lawmakers are expected to reach a compromise on Caesar that aligns with Republican priorities, though President Donald Trump has yet to clarify whether he supports a full repeal or prefers to maintain his current authority to suspend sanctions in six-month intervals.

Regional tensions give urgency to security talks: At the Arab-Islamic Emergency Summit President al-Sharaa condemned the recent strike on Hamas leaders in Doha, accusing Israel of violating international norms and citing the attack as part of a broader pattern of Israeli aggression in Syria over the past nine months. Israel’s military posture is shifting from reactive to pre-emptive, with increasingly disproportionate strikes becoming a core feature of its deterrence strategy. In this context, Damascus will be eager to secure a security agreement with Tel Aviv.

Security pact sticking points: Israeli control of certain territories, airspace violations, and the broader issue of how far Syria will accept limitations in exchange for security guarantees are key barriers to a security agreement. Al-Sharaa will continue to seek international backing and support as he prepares to address the UN General Assembly on 24 September – the first Syrian president to do so since 1967.

Domestic reconciliation critical for Syria’s stability: While the Suwayda ceasefire still holds and some administrative control has been handed to Druze leaders, the central government’s authority in the region remains tenuous. Intercommunal tensions persist and the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate. Success in implementing the roadmap will be critical to easing US scepticism, bolstering the case for Caesar’s repeal, and consolidating President al-Sharaa’s interim rule. However, the road ahead is far from smooth. Suwayda’s Higher Legal Committee – established by local Druze spiritual leaders to oversee governance – has rejected the roadmap, citing concerns over the legitimacy and impartiality of the domestic judiciary system.

Israel–Palestine: IDF troops move into Gaza City as UN inquiry finds genocide; UNGA backs two-state plan

Israeli forces expanded their ground assault in Gaza City on Tuesday after a week of heavy airstrikes on more than 850 targets the military says are linked to Hamas. Up to 700,000 Palestinians were estimated to remain in the city at the start of this week, with many residents unable to leave due to a lack of shelter, transport and other resources as well as limited safe routes to the south. The offensive, which seeks to establish Israeli occupation of the entire city and permanently root out Hamas, has already drawn widespread condemnation, including from states allied with Israel. It has also caused internal divisions in Israel, with elements of the IDF concerned over the heightened risk to both Israeli troops and captives, and the lack of a post-takeover governance plan.

On the same day, a two-year-long UN Independent Commission of Inquiry concluded that the Israeli state has committed genocide in Gaza. Its report cited four out of the five acts listed in Article II of the Genocide Convention and concluded that President Isaac Herzog, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then Defence Minister Yoav Gallant were responsible for incitement to commit genocide. It recommended that states fulfil their obligations under international law to take all available steps to end the genocide, avoid complicity, and punish those responsible.

At the UN General Assembly (UNGA) meeting last Friday, held in the wake of the Israeli attack on Hamas in Qatar, members adopted the “New York Declaration”, which aims to revive the two-state solution. Intended to be a roadmap for countries preparing to recognise the Palestinian state on 22 September, the resolution outlines time-bound steps towards a ceasefire, Palestinian statehood, disarmament of Hamas, and normalisation measures between Israel and Arab states. Ten members voted against – including the US and Israel – and 12 abstained.

Regional and stakeholder impact

Taken together, the UN resolution, Israel’s military escalation, and the genocide finding may mark a tipping point, with more states likely to downgrade trade and defence ties and adopt targeted sanctions against Israel.

The COI is the first UN-appointed body to determine that Israel is committing genocide. While not legally binding, the findings strengthen calls for concrete measures against Israel, notably the suspension of arms transfers and imposition of sanctions and asset freezes. For Western allies of the US and Israel, it increases the potential costs of inaction, from greater legal exposure to heightened reputational damage, and further erosion of the credibility of international law.

The New York Declaration shows a broad political commitment to a ceasefire and peace process framework but implementation prospects are slim. The General Assembly cannot impose legally binding measures. Nevertheless, Israel will face deeper diplomatic isolation as a result of its continued escalation. Regional states increasingly view Israel as a direct security threat and destabilising force in the Middle East. Domestically, Netanyahu’s government faces growing public unease over the war and the challenge of crafting a narrative that justifies the impact on Israel’s international standing.

What’s next

Protracted campaign: The Gaza City offensive is likely to be incremental and continue for months to come. Heavy casualties are expected. The continued displacement of Palestinians and closure last week of the only operational aid crossing in the north will worsen conditions of famine, disease and overcrowding across the Strip, including in the so-called “humanitarian zones.”

Fragmented international response: Global pressure on Israel will increase. In Europe this week, Spain announced nine legally binding measures against Israel, including an arms embargo, declaring its actions “genocide” for the first time. Other European states may follow suit, but a coordinated push for meaningful pressure on Israel is unlikely. The EU Commission has proposed downgrading trade ties and imposing sanctions against National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. However, the package is likely to be blocked in part or in full due to opposition from countries such as Germany, Italy, Austria and Hungary.