MENA Strategic Bulletin – OPEC+ balances supply growth and stability; GCC regulators aligning on real estate

OPEC+ balances supply growth and stability 

By Neil Quilliam and Alice Gower

At its November 2 meeting, OPEC+ agreed to increase crude production by 137,000 barrels per day beginning in December, followed by a pause in any additional hikes during the first quarter of 2026. The decision marks a controlled step in the gradual unwinding of the alliance’s voluntary production cuts, while signalling continued caution amid mixed economic data and softening demand indicators. 

The modest increase is intended to sustain market stability, support member revenues, and demonstrate cohesion without triggering a price decline. The decision also reflects recognition that global inventories remain comfortable and that a more aggressive output rise could undermine prices heading into a seasonally weaker demand period. 

For Saudi Arabia, the group’s de facto leader, the move demonstrates a pragmatic shift in oil policy. After two years of prioritising price defence through deep supply cuts, Riyadh is now steering towards a strategy that sustains fiscal inflows and secures market share while maintaining credibility as a responsible market stabiliser. 

Regional and stakeholder impact 

Saudi Arabia’s position in this latest adjustment is closely linked to its budgetary and domestic policy requirements. The government’s ongoing Vision 2030 investment drive, which has resulted in elevated public spending, has widened fiscal deficits. Bloomberg estimates the kingdom’s fiscal breakeven oil price in the mid-$90s per barrel – up to $113 per barrel if PIF’s domestic investment is included – for 2025, while Brent has largely traded below that threshold in 2025, with the annual average at approximately $70/barrel to date. In this context, a modest production increase provides incremental revenue without materially softening prices. 

The pause through Q1 2026 is calculated to ensure fiscal needs are met but flexibility to reverse course if market conditions weaken is retained. This stance reinforces the kingdom’s preference for stability over short-term gains, balancing the demands of budget management, market share, and long-term strategic credibility within OPEC+. 

The decision also comes against a backdrop of expanded Western sanctions on Russian energy entities, including Rosneft and Lukoil. These measures, which tighten restrictions on shipping, insurance and financial services, have created intermittent disruptions to Russian export flows and increased logistical costs. While discounted Russian barrels continue to reach Asia, the sanctions have heightened uncertainty in global supply chains, strengthening OPEC+’s inclination toward moderation. An over-supply scenario could quickly destabilise prices should Russian volumes suddenly return to the market. 

For other Gulf producers such as the UAE, Kuwait, and Oman, the OPEC+ decision provides predictability and limits intra-OPEC+ tension over quotas. These producers benefit from price stability, even if the near-term revenue uplift is modest. Iraq and Kazakhstan, which face compliance and infrastructure constraints, also stand to gain from a steady quota environment that avoids competitive over-production. 

What’s next 

Market focus now shifts to the demand trajectory in Q1 2026 and the evolving impact of sanctions on Russian exports. Should global consumption soften or non-OPEC supply expand, OPEC+ retains the option to re-introduce targeted cuts. Conversely, sustained demand or tighter Russian logistics could justify extending the pause or modestly increasing output later in 2026. 

For Saudi Arabia, oil policy over the next six months will likely balance fiscal imperatives with market stewardship. The kingdom appears intent on anchoring prices in the mid-$70s to $80s per barrel range, sufficient to fund domestic spending and maintain market share, while deterring a surge in rival supply. 

GCC regulators lay foundations for real estate alignment 

On October 12, 2025, the GCC convened its first joint meeting of real estate regulatory authorities in Doha, held on the sidelines of the Qatar Real Estate Forum 2025. The session brought together senior representatives from across the bloc, including Saudi Arabia’s Real Estate General Authority (REGA) and Bahrain’s Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA). Participants agreed to establish a permanent expert committee to advance cross-border cooperation in property registration, development oversight and governance standards. 

The meeting reflects a growing effort by the GCC to strengthen institutional capacity in sectors central to long-term diversification. Real estate, which represents a significant share of Gulf GDP and underpins urban development, financial markets and sustainability planning, is a logical area for greater alignment. Coordinated data frameworks, harmonised valuation practices and improved investor confidence all offer potential gains. Yet, as with other aspects of GCC integration, progress will depend on the willingness of national regulators to turn shared principles into enforceable systems that work across borders. 

The timing of the Doha meeting, alongside renewed regional activity in property markets, highlights both opportunity and risk. Transaction volumes are rising, but fragmented regulations and uneven transparency continue to discourage cross-border investment. The challenge for the GCC is to ensure that dialogue now gives way to delivery before the next market cycle exposes structural gaps. 

Regional and stakeholder impact 

The GCC’s comparative advantage lies in its technocratic architecture, a web of committees and agencies that drive alignment in areas such as standards, power interconnection, customs and health coordination. The new real estate platform extends this ecosystem into a sector with direct economic and social relevance. 

However, the regional context is increasingly diverse. Member states are pursuing distinct economic paths: Saudi Arabia through Vision 2030 and large-scale development projects, the United Arab Emirates through its network of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, and Qatar through an active international investment policy. In this environment, the GCC functions less as a driver of deep integration and more as a mechanism for policy alignment and institutional continuity. 

Sustaining momentum will depend on inclusive stakeholder management. While national regulators bring essential expertise, stronger engagement from the private sector, financial institutions and valuation professionals will be needed to ensure that emerging standards are practical and widely adopted. Without such collaboration, disparities in appraisal methods, environmental reporting and registry systems could persist, limiting the benefits of coordination. 

What’s next 

Following the Doha meeting, the newly formed expert committee is expected to begin work in 2026 on a shared real estate data framework and a regional valuation code. These initiatives fit within the GCC’s broader pattern of gradual, consensus-based cooperation focused on technical and commercially relevant outcomes. 

The Council’s cautious approach can appear slow, but it has also proven resilient. By separating technical collaboration from political contention, the GCC creates space for steady, long-term policy alignment even as member states pursue individual strategies. If the real estate committee can deliver tangible outputs, particularly on transparency, registry interoperability and sustainability reporting, it could establish a model for how the GCC converts dialogue into policy. 

The October 12 Doha meeting therefore represented more than a procedural milestone. It marked the start of what could become one of the GCC’s most commercially significant cooperation tracks – the careful construction of a coherent Gulf real estate framework that supports competitiveness, resilience and investor confidence.